Hog Prices-Markets
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says grains took the path of least resistance on Wednesday trading lower with a lack of fresh bullish news.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says so far its estimated China purchased 3 MMT but in order for China to keep on pace it would need to buy over 2 MMT a week through the end of 2025.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says he would be more confident about the lows holding in the cattle futures if three factors would turn positive.
The question now is was this just a correction of the oversold status in the cattle markets? While a higher weekly close is positive, Varilek says recoveries often come in three day waves.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says grains staged a surprise rally on news of China soybean buys but farmer selling pressure also subsided ahead of first notice day on Friday.
Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics says the grain complex also saw some buying interest on the lower U.S. dollar index, which reacted to U.S. economic data.
Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing says the soybean market is tired of rhetoric and wants to see results in the form of sales to China.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle were limit down early Monday on news that Tyson Foods will be closing its Lexington, Neb. beef processing plant on Jan. 20 and the Amarillo, Texas plant will go down to one shift.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the market had been anticipating the tariffs to be lowered on Brazil beef for several days and it was part of the recent selloff in cattle. “So I think a lot of this was already penciled into prices.” he explains.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says soybeans continue to sell off though as this business has already been priced into the market with the nearly $1.50 rally off the lows.
Grains futures saw sharp losses on Wednesday on profit taking according to Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. However, there were several other factors at play.
Mike Minor says the agency reported 29 million bushels of soybean purchases Tuesday morning which brings China’s total to from 8% to 12% of the total 12 MMT commitments they’ve made.
Randy Martinson says confirmation of 29 million bushels of soybeans sold to China is already priced into the market after the big rally to 17-month highs in soybeans. So, the market is seeing a traditional “buy to rumor sell the fact” reaction.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the fear of Brazilian beef tariffs being lowered was part of the selloff in the cattle futures last week. However, Brazil tariffs are still at 66.4% so he says it was already priced into the market.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the funds continue to liquidate their long positions on the fear of the Mexican border reopening but lower fed cash is also a negative.
Don Roose with U.S. Commodities says corn and soybeans saw chart breakout with fund buying heading into the USDA report on expectations of lower yield but also watching for China buys in the daily export sales.
The grain markets fought off early weakness on Wednesday to close near the highs of the day and stage a strong technical close according to Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says grains are fading the reopening of the government on positioning ahead of USDA’s reports on Friday and the lack of China soybean purchases.
Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities, says grains were mixed positioning ahead of the USDA reports with corn getting some support from lower yields in the average trade estimates.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says soybeans are mostly lower seeing some Turnaround Tuesday profit taking but the grains are also hearing up for the USDA reports Friday.
Sam Hudson with Corn Belt Marketing says part of the rally in the grains was tied to talk of the government possibly reopening this week. That provided a risk on environment for the bulls who have been flying blind with the lack of market data from USDA.
Live and feeder cattle futures are extending gains after a higher close on Friday. Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says he is encouraged a low may be forming in both markets.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market is seeing a short covering or technical bounce after an ugly down week. So is the fund liquidation done yet or is this a dead cat bounce?
Arlan Suderman, with StoneX, Inc., says soybeans are rallying on the White House interpretation of the deal which assumes China will buy 12 MMT in the next couple of months on top of the nearly 6 MMT it purchased earlier in 2025. However, he says China has not confirmed that.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while the cattle futures are distancing themselves from last week’s lows he isn’t sure if all of the bearish news is factored into the market yet. Meanwhile, soybeans make new highs as the White House clarifies China will buy 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says with China potentially buying 441 million bushels of U.S. soybeans in the next two months prices need to move a lot higher.
After an ugly pullback in the cattle market futures are trying to recover according to Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek as cash strength is returning in the feeder cattle market.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says in response to the China deal the soybean market pushed into new highs for the move with January finally closing above the $11 mark.
Alan Bruger says USDA was assuming some sales to China in the September WASDE but he thinks the agency will need to make some revisions in their 300 million bushel ending stocks with this deal.
Brian Grete with Commstock Investments thinks the China deal is nearly priced into the soybean market and so it will need confirmation of what “significant purchases” means before moving higher.