Market Analysis
Jon Scheve summarizes the latest weather conditions of the Mato Grosso region in Brazil and how it is impacting prices. He also discusses what to expect in this week’s USDA report.
Analysts say it’s go-time for the impacts of South American weather, but Argentina’s new president, and major policy changes, also spooked the markets this week. Chip Nellinger and Brian Grete explain why.
Despite weather concerns sprouting in Brazil, USDA didn’t make any major adjustments to the South American crop in Friday’s reports. Increased demand from China and Mexico prompted USDA to trim U.S. ending stocks.
Jon Scheve discusses how he maintained a guaranteed $5.37 floor price on his 2023 corn through November with his put option strategy.
After two months of a waning outlook on the ag economy, economists views took a turn in the November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, a survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the country.
According to a recent report from CoBank, an abundance of corn and soybeans has resulted in cheaper basis and bigger carries in futures markets.
Recent WASDE reports had assumed another record Brazilian soybean crop and Argentina returning to normal, but the El Niño weather pattern might have something to say about that.
On soybeans, Jerry Gulke says the 25 million bushel increase in carryout can easily be wiped out with the current weather issues potential cuts to South American production, plus increased export demand.
Jon Scheve discusses similarities of corn and bean prices in October between 2022 and 2023.
Soybean demand makes the market more receptive to a postharvest rally if production trends lower into January. Corn exports are behind last year’s pace, and importers are turning to Brazil’s corn.