Mexico

South Texas farmer Brian Jones says years of missed water deliveries from Mexico have cut his planted acres in half, forcing tough planting decisions as a new agreement brings both hope and skepticism.

Cattle market fundamentals remain unchanged while psychology shifts the market due to the President’s comments and industry interference.

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the funds continue to liquidate their long positions on the fear of the Mexican border reopening but lower fed cash is also a negative.

Arlan Suderman, with StoneX, Inc., says soybeans are rallying on the White House interpretation of the deal which assumes China will buy 12 MMT in the next couple of months on top of the nearly 6 MMT it purchased earlier in 2025. However, he says China has not confirmed that.

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while the cattle futures are distancing themselves from last week’s lows he isn’t sure if all of the bearish news is factored into the market yet. Meanwhile, soybeans make new highs as the White House clarifies China will buy 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025.

Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says with China potentially buying 441 million bushels of U.S. soybeans in the next two months prices need to move a lot higher.

After an ugly pullback in the cattle market futures are trying to recover according to Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek as cash strength is returning in the feeder cattle market.

Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says in response to the China deal the soybean market pushed into new highs for the move with January finally closing above the $11 mark.

Alan Bruger says USDA was assuming some sales to China in the September WASDE but he thinks the agency will need to make some revisions in their 300 million bushel ending stocks with this deal.