Mexico
The parent company of Case IH, New Holland, Steyr and other machinery brands says there will be no impacts to production and parts shipments will continue as planned.
The majority of respondents in the March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war, but who wins? Ag economists say it’s not the U.S., Canada or Mexico but rather Brazil that could come out on top.
Tariff whiplash is consuming the commodity markets — and the possible impact is stirring up quite the debate. At present, President Trump says he’s sticking to his plan to impose additional tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China starting April 2.
Varilek says black swan events like the Black Sea war that broke in May of 2022 lead to highly volatile markets but in that case the news and uncertainty became priced in over time.
Allison Thompson of The Money Farm says grains markets extended gains for a second day with talk of ag exemptions and then another 30 day extension on tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Mexico’s president said on Tuesday the country will respond to U.S. tariffs with a 25% tariff on U.S. goods, but she will hold off announcing the targeted products until Sunday.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says the grain markets made new lows for the move on fund liquidation and technical selling pressure tied to trade retaliation by Canada, Mexico and China.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, says the technical selling pressure hit commodity and outside markets and was tied to uncertainty regarding tariffs being placed on Canada and Mexico on March 4 and bearish economic news.
While Canada and Mexico have taken measures to address U.S. concerns, China’s response remains muted, potentially setting the stage for further trade tensions.
Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the grain markets bounced overnight and saw a higher opening but funds used that strength to liquidate or sell more contracts.
President Trump says tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico will now take effect on April 2, 2025.
The look at corn and soybean acreage under current conditions will be among the key focal points during the event, but it will also be key to see how USDA paints an export outlook with so much uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade.
Trump said Monday that his planned 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian exports to the U.S. “are going ahead on time, on schedule,” meaning the duties would take effect on March 4 at the conclusion of a one-month suspension.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says ag markets continue to ride the roller coaster of headlines about tariffs and policy changes being imposed by the Trump Administration. This is driving fund and algorithm trading.
Kevin Good, Vice President of Industry Relations and Analysis with CattleFax, says the herd is still shrinking and so are slaughter levels and that will mean more record prices in 2025.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures continue to consolidate off recent record highs in routine profit taking mode. Grains extended gains on hopes for a China deal and the pause on tariffs for Canada and Mexico.
Who is next on the Trump administration’s trade radar?
John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says grains opened lower on Monday but recovered shortly after the opening when news broke that the U.S. would delay tariffs on Mexico for 30 days to allow negotiations.
Just hours before the tariffs were set to take effect, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced the news on X, and President Donald Trump later confirmed. Mexico is the top destination for U.S. ag exports. The announcement from Canada came later on Monday.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grain and livestock futures opened mostly lower in response to tariffs imposed on China, Canada and Mexico over the weekend and retaliatory measures from those countries.
Following President Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Canada announced its own 25% tariffs on $155 billion worth of U.S. imports. Mexico also announced its own retaliatory measures, but no specifics were unveiled as of Sunday morning.
U.S. farmers and various trade groups are very apprehensive about not only the potential negative impacts of tariffs on the U.S. ag sector, but what they do to garner new trade agreements.
Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says most markets had a negative reaction to to the 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canada starting this weekend and possible retaliation.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grain and hog markets opened lower reacting to President Trump announcing Thursday afternoon the U.S. would be moving ahead with 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Feb. 1.
Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump justified the tariffs as a response to what he described as excessive migration, drug trafficking and unfair trade practices. While he suggested the tariff rate could further increase, he indicated a decision on whether oil imports would be exempt would come soon.
Lutnick repeatedly called for restoring “reciprocity” in trade with other countries.
Outgoing USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack sent a letter to Mexico’s Secretary of Agriculture acknowledging the progress made in reopening cattle trade between the two countries following the detection of New World Screwworm, but says more action is needed to resume trade.
USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) suspended imports of live cattle and bison from Mexico on Nov. 22, 2024, following the detection of New World screwworm (NWS) along Mexico’s southern border.
The dispute traces back to December 2020 when plans were first announced to ban GM corn by the end of 2024. This move immediately raised concerns in the Corn Belt, prompting NCGA to initiate outreach to both the Trump and Biden administrations.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains try to hold early gains. Nearby live cattle futures made new highs for the move pushed by sharply higher cash in the North at mostly $196, the South was at mostly $191.