Trade
As farmers look ahead to 2026, grain markets are sending mixed signals based on record corn exports, large supplies, federal payments and ongoing China trade uncertainty.
Record corn exports are tightening stocks and lifting prices, but long-term strength depends on expanding domestic demand. Could year-round E15 overcome legislative hurdles in Washington and change the market trajectory?
USDA will deliver $11 billion in one-time bridge payments to help farmers offset 2025 trade disruptions and rising costs. Eligible producers must verify 2025 acreage reports by Dec. 19, with payments expected by Feb. 28, 2026.
China’s pledge to buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans is facing questions over timing, storage capacity and price competitiveness, leaving markets uncertain whether the full promise can be met before year-end.
Susan Olson, of Action Intel, analyzes barge movement and logistics and says the past few weeks show a divergence in how grain is getting to export markets.
The change reverses part of a July trade action that had imposed elevated import duties on multiple categories of Brazilian goods and is the latest effort by the Trump administration to bring grocery prices down.
Oklahoma State’s Derrell Peel says the beef industry needs time — not politics or policy — to solve beef supply and demand realities.
A new report spotlights how agricultural acquisitions and business strategy linked to the Chinese government have amassed production and power, and it’s being called into question by policy thinktank America First Policy Institute (AFPI).
Growers say they remain cautiously optimistic and believe the U.S. is “headed in the right direction.” But they want the gridlock with China to end and for actual steps to be taken to get their crops sold and shipped.
Strong production numbers and government policies support the thesis of higher costs for longer.