Wheat
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, Inc., tries to explain the higher day in the grains, especially soybeans, with the bearish Chinese trade news. So, what drove the rally?
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says soybeans rallied with the tailwind of more talk of Chinese tensions easing and May closed above key 200-day moving average resistance.
Allison Thompson, The Money Farm, says soybeans are seeing follow through buying on Wednesday with the de-escalation of the China trade war.
Dan Basse, president of Ag Resource Company in Chicago, says corn was pressured by the fast planting pace of 12% nationally and a slightly more open forecast for the next week or so.
Mark Knight, Farmer’s Keeper Financial, says corn and wheat are under pressure from fast corn planting pace and rains in the forecast for hard red winter wheat country. Soybeans bounced off support, but need to take out technical resistance to keep the momentum going.
The original proposal would have resulted in millions of dollars of fees per vessel, thus lowering commodity prices. The revisions, however, have some key exemptions that are net positive for U.S. agriculture.
Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company, says grain and cattle markets saw selling Monday in tandem with the collapse in outside markets.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains lose early strength running into chart resistance. While cattle also started higher with the sharply higher cash trade Thursday but faded.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says the grains markets started the day session higher with weekly exports strong except for old crop wheat. However, the market turned mixed with positioning ahead of a three day holiday and watching weather.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says several factors combined to cause the commodity wide buying on Wednesday.
Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities says grain markets continue to see profit taking after the recent relief rally pushed old crop corn, soybeans and wheat up into technical resistance on the charts.
Brian Grete, Pro Farmer, says grains see a healthy correction on profit taking after hitting resistance. Cattle continue to recover with the S&P but for how long?
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says the way the markets shook off the escalating trade war with China was impressive but it will take several factors converging to keep the momentum going.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says the ag markets have handled the escalation of the trade war with China remarkably well this week.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says corn and soybeans ended higher with lower ending stocks in the WASDE as corn fell below the 1.5 billion bu. mark.
Major changes weren’t anticipated for USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report, but there were still a few surprises — mostly for corn.
Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist says the markets reacted positively to the 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs for countries that reached out to negotiate with the U.S. and did not retaliate.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says grains are shaking off the news of an escalation of the trade war with China as they announced overnight they would be placing an additional 50% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods, including ag.
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says while the tariff news was a bit more subdued Tuesday the markets are still watching tariff headlines and that is impacting money flow in and out of the financial sector as well as the commodities.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst for Barchart, says it could just be an oversold bounce as the equity markets have reached bear market territory and that stabilization is helping to firm up the grain and especially the livestock futures.
Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says grains rebound as the market has absorbed much of the tariff news. Meanwhile, livestock saw follow through selling and triple digit losses.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says after a lower start the ag markets reversed with the stock market.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says soybeans, livestock and outside markets all had a negative response to China imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports of an additional 34%. But why was corn up for the week?
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the panic selling continues as China has hit back with a 34% retaliatory tariff on all U.S. goods and other trading partners are looking at counter measures. “This feels a lot like the COVID market response.”
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says the markets saw risk off selling in response to President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. He says the markets may not stabilize until after the tariffs go into effect April 9 and trading partners tip their hand on retaliation.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodity Brokerage, says grains saw risk off selling and positioning ahead of President Trump’s Liberation Day announcement on tariffs. However, Mexico’s president says they don’t want a tit for tat trade war.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grains are not seeing follow through buying after the strong closes on Tuesday as the market is trading tariff fears.
Tommy Grisafi, Nesvick Trading, says grain futures saw risk on buying as traders were adding weather premium but biofuels news was also supportive.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the grain markets are still digesting the USDA report data but are looking ahead now at weather and the impact of “Liberation Day.”
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says the USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Reports usually generate plenty of fireworks but the reaction was rather benign.