Market Analysis
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says corn is extending gains for a 5th session still in recovery mode after the panic liquidation tied to tariffs. Soybeans rebounded early.
Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge, says soybeans and the products saw significant pressure tied to risk off selling and South American harvest pressure, while the rest of the markets were able to shake that off.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle see buying interest after strong cash late last week. Corn tries to hold gains with soybeans seeing South American harvest pressure and concern about China’s 10% tariffs on U.S. soybeans.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says despite the volatility tied to tariffs, the corn and soybean markets closed only slightly lower for the week and Gulke was impressed at the reset off the lows that produced a hook reversal on the charts.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says it was roller coaster week in both grain and livestock futures due to on again, off again tariff talk. Are calmer waters ahead?
Varilek says black swan events like the Black Sea war that broke in May of 2022 lead to highly volatile markets but in that case the news and uncertainty became priced in over time.
Allison Thompson of The Money Farm says grains markets extended gains for a second day with talk of ag exemptions and then another 30 day extension on tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says the grain markets made new lows for the move on fund liquidation and technical selling pressure tied to trade retaliation by Canada, Mexico and China.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, says the technical selling pressure hit commodity and outside markets and was tied to uncertainty regarding tariffs being placed on Canada and Mexico on March 4 and bearish economic news.
Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the grain markets bounced overnight and saw a higher opening but funds used that strength to liquidate or sell more contracts.
Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions, says corn, wheat and hogs reacted negatively to the 25% tariffs being imposed on Canada and Mexico on March 4.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm, says corn and wheat are reacting negatively to the breaking news that 25% tariffs will not be delayed and will go into effect on March 4 on Canada and Mexico and larger acreage estimates from USDA.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says grains saw pressure on the continued on again off again new regarding tariffs.
Craig Turner with StoneX says corn tries to hold early gains after bouncing off chart support Tuesday but may struggle with soybeans and wheat falling on tariff fears and liquidation ahead of first notice day.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says grains saw pressure early Tuesday on tariff fears and fund positioning end of month but ended well off of lows.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, says grains are seeing follow through technical selling pressure with tariff fears ramping up.
Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing says a combination of factors pressured grain markets, including end of month positioning, weather and tariff concerns.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains are weak on more tariff talk. Cattle opened strong with the slightly friendly numbers in the Cattle on Feed Reported Report and a possible cash bottom forming.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, thinks the corn market may just be taking a pause to refresh and he hasn’t changed his bullish stance. “I’m willing to have some patience,” he says.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says corn and soybeans fell heading into the weekend on profit taking and technical selling, plus lower crude oil and a higher dollar.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says corn and soybeans are lower on profit taking after a higher day yesterday.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says soybeans and products led the rally and recovery on talk of a China deal by President Trump and a lower dollar. That spilled over to support corn.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag says corn and soybeans are trying recover after the lower closes Wednesday tied to talk by President Trump that the U.S. will reach a trade deal with China.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says corn made new highs for the move with the March contract reaching a high of $5.04 1/2 before reversing and ending lower on the day. The key is was it topping action?
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says grains closed higher on fund buying and March corn closed above $5 with March Chicago wheat closing above $6.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says grains faded early strength as corn finally gets above $5 on the March or front month contract and sees farmer selling and profit taking.
Is it possible the wheat market is finally seeing the same paradigm shift that’s already taken place in the corn market? Jerry Gulke is watching several signals for an answer, including speculator activity in the wheat market.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says grains saw technical buying led by wheat and surged to end the week. However, there were also some big fundamental drivers.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains are rallying but cattle are seeing some selling pressure again ahead of a three day weekend but are holding chart support.
Rich Nelson of Allendale says grains closed quietly higher with corn and wheat supported by strong weekly exports.