Market Analysis
Craig Turner of StoneX says end users have seen current grain prices as a value which has supported the markets and if you add in inflation grains could be carving out new trading ranges.
Grains reverse to close higher Thursday as Darin Newsom with Barchart says end user or commercial buying stepped in. He says there is strong demand for corn in soybeans at current price levels which is a bullish sign.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says corn and wheat traded higher on technical or corrective buying as well as big flash export sales, noteably to Mexico.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says corn and soybeans are up after the news of 80 million bushels of corn sales and 6.4 million bushels of soybeans sales. Cattle opened higher before profit taking and hedge pressure set in.
Vince Boddicker of Farmers Trading Company says funds were back selling in the grain markets with risk off spillover from outside markets including an implosion in crude oil.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grain markets are seeing pressure from harvest, weather and renewed fund selling. All the markets are flirting with key support levels on the charts.
Kent Beadle of Paradigm Futures says grains saw follow through selling pressure after a lower day Friday. The complex also saw spillover from the risk off day in outside markets including the higher dollar and lower crude oil.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are mostly higher early Monday on better cash news and trying to negate Friday’s reversal. Grains are seeing pressure from harvest and South American rain chances.
The October WASDE effectively solidified the supply side of the U.S. corn and soybean balance sheets for the 2024-25 marketing year, though Gulke was surprised USDA didn’t raise yields because harvest has never been so good on his farm.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures says after a non eventful WASDE, grains saw some profit taking heading into the weekend with row crops seeing harvest pressure.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures need to take out the next layer of chart resistance to move higher. Grains continue to add war and weather premium and that shouldn’t change unless the WASDE is extremely bearish.
John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says the row crop markets are seeing continued pressure from three main fundamentals.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says wheat is higher adding war premium but soybeans and corn are seeing harvest pressure and trading South American weather.
Brian Grete, Pro Farmer, says wheat was supported by light fund short covering as traders were adding in some geopolitical risk premium.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the cash cattle trade will likely be steady this week which may mean the futures could stall out. He thinks the party could be over in row crops.
Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, thinks the party is over in the grains, at least for now, due to several key factors.
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says several factors combined to pressure the grain markets Friday. Whether or not the rally is over depends on global weather and the October WASDE.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, says grains are in transition right now as the funds have likely covered most of their short positions and are looking for signals for their next move.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says grains saw profit taking after running up into some chart resistance.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are well supported on higher cash. Grains seeing pressure as funds may be out of ammunition.
Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge, says funds have covered most of their record short position in grains and they are not likely to go long.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage, says historically, when corn and soybeans have a fall rally in August and September the markets top out in the October.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says funds continue to cover shorts in the grain markets but there are some fundamentals also helping to support the rally.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures says corn continues to move higher on fund buying and tighter corn stocks from USDA’s Quarterly Stocks Report. He thinks corn could eventually take out resistance on the charts and move higher.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says most of the strength in corn and wheat was due to end of quarter fund short covering.
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net says the corn stocks were friendly under expectations at 1.76 billion bushels due to better feed demand and that data is supportive for the corn market.
Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains and livestock futures are trading mixed as traders position and take profits end of quarter and await the USDA report numbers out at 11 am.
Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says corn and soybeans have rallied into chart resistance and will need three main fundamental factors to combine to keep prices moving higher.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says soybeans continue to see Brazil weather concerns and technical buying. When soybeans put in an early harvest low they tend to rally around 80 cents and have cleared that mark already. However, if Brazil stays dry the market could continue to price that in.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures reversed with $2 higher cash in Southern feedlot areas. Grain markets ended lower as fund short covering was overrun by an increase in farmer selling.