Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the fear of Brazilian beef tariffs being lowered was part of the selloff in the cattle futures last week. However, Brazil tariffs are still at 66.4% so he says it was already priced into the market.
Trump’s allegations are serious: price fixing, collusion and market manipulation by what he calls “foreign-owned meatpacking cartels.”
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says soybeans had rallied into the report as the market priced in additional China demand. So, he wasn’t surprised with the reaction,
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX says USDA only lowered national corn yield .7 bushels per acre to 186 which was a disappointment for the bulls.
Price action summary and outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
The biggest surprise came from the agency cutting corn yield less than a bushel and loweing soybean exports by 50 million bushels.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the funds continue to liquidate their long positions on the fear of the Mexican border reopening but lower fed cash is also a negative.
Don Roose with U.S. Commodities says corn and soybeans saw chart breakout with fund buying heading into the USDA report on expectations of lower yield but also watching for China buys in the daily export sales.
Indonesia will start road safety tests for its planned B50 biofuel program early next month.
The grain markets fought off early weakness on Wednesday to close near the highs of the day and stage a strong technical close according to Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says grains are fading the reopening of the government on positioning ahead of USDA’s reports on Friday and the lack of China soybean purchases.
Indonesia plans to expand its domestic biodiesel mandate.
Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities, says grains were mixed positioning ahead of the USDA reports with corn getting some support from lower yields in the average trade estimates.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says soybeans are mostly lower seeing some Turnaround Tuesday profit taking but the grains are also hearing up for the USDA reports Friday.
Sam Hudson with Corn Belt Marketing says part of the rally in the grains was tied to talk of the government possibly reopening this week. That provided a risk on environment for the bulls who have been flying blind with the lack of market data from USDA.
Live and feeder cattle futures are extending gains after a higher close on Friday. Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says he is encouraged a low may be forming in both markets.
The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the October consumer price index and jobs reports.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says private estimates for national corn yield range from 182 to 186. However, he expects a bearish report because yields may be higher than expected.
Soybeans bounced on Friday and were up Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says to go back and retest this week’s highs or move to new highs soybeans will need to see proof of China purchases.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market is seeing a short covering or technical bounce after an ugly down week. So is the fund liquidation done yet or is this a dead cat bounce?
China’s exports fell for the first time in eight months.
Ted Seifried says the ag markets saw risk off selling across the commodity board and profit taking in the grains after the recent rally. But with the volatility in the soybean market is this topping action?
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, Inc., says commodity wide selling is hitting the grain and livestock futures early Thursday and some of it is tied to uncertainty regarding the future of tariffs.
January soybeans rallied $.13 on Wednesday as China dropped it 24% retaliatory tariffs imposed on U.S. ag goods March 4 for one year.
Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says the market is digesting clarification from China on tariffs. Beijing says it will lower the 24% retaliatory tariffs but the cut still leaves a 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans imported into China.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says most of the grain and oilseed complex saw general profit taking Tuesday after hitting overbought territory.
Arlan Suderman, with StoneX, Inc., says soybeans are rallying on the White House interpretation of the deal which assumes China will buy 12 MMT in the next couple of months on top of the nearly 6 MMT it purchased earlier in 2025. However, he says China has not confirmed that.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while the cattle futures are distancing themselves from last week’s lows he isn’t sure if all of the bearish news is factored into the market yet. Meanwhile, soybeans make new highs as the White House clarifies China will buy 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the reaction in the soybean market following the announced trade framework between the U.S. and China provides important technical clues for future price direction.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says with China potentially buying 441 million bushels of U.S. soybeans in the next two months prices need to move a lot higher.