Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, says grains are slightly higher Tuesday morning. While outside markets are reacting to the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Tomm Pftizenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage says soybeans saw some follow through buying on Monday but it was somewhat disappointing considering the limit up move in soybean oil.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures started the day higher in recovery mode after a poor technical close on Friday and a bearish reversal lower for the week. Soybeans continue to rally on the heels of the surge in bean oil on EPA’s surprise biofuels news.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the news EPA is raising blending mandates for biomass-based diesel above expectations came as a surprise but was positive for farmers and the biofuels industry.
Soybeans were up sharply on Friday with soybean oil locked limit up on all of the contracts. Alan Brugler, A&N Economics, says it was in reaction to the EPA’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations, which were especially bullish for biomass based diesel.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are seeing risk off selling tied to the news overnight of escalating war between Iran and Israel which has the financial markets sharply lower. Bean oil is limit up on news of higher blending levels for biomass based diesel.
Senate Republicans on Wednesday released the agriculture section of their budget reconciliation bill.
Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing says corn was slightly higher with tighter ending stocks, while soybeans fell on the rumor of lower RVO levels.
USDA lowered old crop corn ending stocks 50 million bushels, but Brian Splitt, AgMarket.Net, says the market doesn’t feel like it’s trading a 1.365 billion bushel carryout nor do the July/December spreads.
Craig Turner with StoneX says the markets were initially charged by news the U.S. and China had reached a trade framework. However, the deal was lacking in detail just like so many of the trade deals touted by the administration.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says the grain market is getting some support from news a framework has been worked out between the U.S. and China to at least call a truce on tariffs and remove restrictions on rare earth mineral imports.
The U.S. Department of Justice has asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit to extend its stay on a lower court’s decision that found most of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs illegal.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says the corn market saw a technical bounce and even some bull spreading on Tuesday, but most of it was tied to short covering. While cattle reacted to ICE raids at Omaha, NE meat plants.
Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company, says old crop corn made another new low for the move overnight with national crop ratings improving by 3% to 71% good to excellent. The corn complex continues to face headwinds from weather, with no major threats on the horizon.
Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities says Monday’s action in the grain markets was disappointing as the funds came back into sell in the grain complex.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash cattle trade shattered previous records last week and the futures are continuing to make new all-time highs on Monday in both live and feeder cattle futures.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the gains were impressive considering the ongoing uncertainty regarding weather, trade and the geopolitical environment.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says grains also saw mostly higher weekly closes mostly as a result of technical buying.
Republicans on the Senate Ag Committee are seeking to scale back the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) cuts proposed in the House’s sweeping budget reconciliation bill.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures gapped higher on the opening Friday and made all-time highs once again. Futures are still chasing record cash.
The BRICS countries — led by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — are actively working to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar in international trade, a process known as de-dollarization.
Jeff Hoogendoorn, with Professional Ag Marketing, says hogs ended mixed Wednesday, consolidating after the recent rally driven by higher cash and cutouts. While soybeans rallied after the Trump/Xi call.
Mark Knight with Farmers Keeper Financial says grains opened higher on news of a call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi then traded on both sides of steady.
Tommy Grisafi of Nesvick Trading says it was a risk on day in the grains as they attempted to add weather premium on the hot, dry extended forecasts. “I feel like these markets have very little if any weather premium.”
USDA projects a $49.5 billion agricultural trade deficit for fiscal year 2025, nearly double the gap from two years ago.
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says corn and soybeans are building on the reversals scored on Tuesday after corn made new lows for the move and then bounced. Wheat is reluctantly following.
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says corn and soybeans finally bounced Tuesday after closing lower for several days. He says both markets were adding risk premium and scored reversals.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says soybeans are higher with news that President Trump and President Xi are going to be meeting soon, and that is pulling up corn.
The report also highlighted severe infrastructure and agricultural stress.