Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says corn and soybeans saw early pressure as both markets ran up into chart resistance which triggered fund profit taking.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says corn and soybeans both ran up into chart resistance and are seeing some profit taking by technical traders.
Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) criticized the Biden administration for allegedly conducting secretive renegotiations of key trade agreements.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says corn and soybeans were higher on technical buying and adding some weather premium with a hot dry extended forecast for Argentina and Southern Brazil. Cattle futures followed record cash in the South.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says corn scored a new six month high close for the move on dryness in the extended forecast in Argentina and funds adding to their long position.
Brazil’s central bank made another intervention on the final trading day of the year to stabilize the real.
Highlights of a look ahead at 2025 from Dr. Vince Malanga, president of LaSalle Economics.
With strong demand fundamentals the corn market may be able to continue to march higher. Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says he’s not ruling out $5 corn but it will take several factors to push to that level.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are extending gains after a higher week in the futures and with higher cash trade. Grains are seeing technical buying but dryness in Argentina is also a concern.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading Company says the grain markets saw light holiday trade and rebalancing of portfolios end of year. However, the higher weekly closes were encouraging, especially corn at a six month high.
The mere threat of his universal tariffs is sparking a scramble that’s leaving the global trading system prone to bottlenecks, saddled with higher costs and vulnerable to disruptions should an economic shock come along.
Brazil’s soybean and corn exports revealed contrasting performances in November, according to the latest Logistics Bulletin from the National Supply Company (Conab).
Corn ethanol, along with other feedstocks, could play a pivotal role in supplying SAF for the aviation industry, which accounts for about 2.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says corn made six month highs and finally closed above the 200 day moving average which has been tough chart resistance.
Brazil’s soybean crushing capacity over the next three years is expected to increase at nearly twice the rate of the last three years, according to Itau BBA’s Agro Consulting.
The B40 policy is expected to support palm oil prices in 2025 by increasing domestic demand and tightening global supplies
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the nearby live cattle were lower despite steady to higher cash and the divergence is frustrating. Corn climbs after closing at a six month high Friday, while soybeans fade. How long can these markets continue to move in opposite directions?
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the weekly continuation chart corn is trading above the October high, the 50-day and the 200-day moving average. “The chart is telling us to have a little patience in this uptrending market,” he adds.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says soybeans recovered off Thursday’s new contract lows on fund short covering and profit taking, plus market talk that China was in buying soybeans. Corn put in the highest weekly close in six months.
Grain markets are seeing value and technical buying but Kent Beadle of Paradigm Futures says the rebound in soybeans is supported by a recovery in the Brazilian Real.
The impact of these tariffs would extend beyond farmers, affecting rural communities where agricultural activities play a crucial economic role.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says soybeans see a dead cat bounce off contract lows Thursday. Meanwhile, cattle futures end lower despite good early cash news. So is this topping action?
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, says soybeans are trying to stage a dead cat bounce after making new contract lows, along with soy products. The stock market is also trying to recover.
Concerns expressed by traders center on a potential shift in demand from biodiesel to ethanol due to year-round E15 sales. That is a questionable conclusion.
What’s ahead for the grain prices the last few weeks of 2024? Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says historical and seasonal tendencies are at play in the grain markets. However, South American weather will also be a focus.
Key agricultural and environmental regulations face an uncertain future as administration change looms.
Dr. Vince Malanga, president of LaSalle Economics, discussed potential economic activity drivers in the coming months, emphasizing the influence of inventory adjustments ahead of possible tariff implementations.
Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete, says soybeans fell with rain in Brazil and big crop forecasts, plus a disappointing NOPA crush report.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains try to hold early gains. Nearby live cattle futures made new highs for the move pushed by sharply higher cash in the North at mostly $196, the South was at mostly $191.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says after the 200 million bushel cut to corn ending stocks in the December WASDE he wonders if USDA is preparing the marketplace for more of the same in the final January report?