Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says corn made six month highs and finally closed above the 200 day moving average which has been tough chart resistance.
Brazil’s soybean crushing capacity over the next three years is expected to increase at nearly twice the rate of the last three years, according to Itau BBA’s Agro Consulting.
The B40 policy is expected to support palm oil prices in 2025 by increasing domestic demand and tightening global supplies
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the nearby live cattle were lower despite steady to higher cash and the divergence is frustrating. Corn climbs after closing at a six month high Friday, while soybeans fade. How long can these markets continue to move in opposite directions?
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the weekly continuation chart corn is trading above the October high, the 50-day and the 200-day moving average. “The chart is telling us to have a little patience in this uptrending market,” he adds.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says soybeans recovered off Thursday’s new contract lows on fund short covering and profit taking, plus market talk that China was in buying soybeans. Corn put in the highest weekly close in six months.
Grain markets are seeing value and technical buying but Kent Beadle of Paradigm Futures says the rebound in soybeans is supported by a recovery in the Brazilian Real.
The impact of these tariffs would extend beyond farmers, affecting rural communities where agricultural activities play a crucial economic role.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says soybeans see a dead cat bounce off contract lows Thursday. Meanwhile, cattle futures end lower despite good early cash news. So is this topping action?
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, says soybeans are trying to stage a dead cat bounce after making new contract lows, along with soy products. The stock market is also trying to recover.
Concerns expressed by traders center on a potential shift in demand from biodiesel to ethanol due to year-round E15 sales. That is a questionable conclusion.
What’s ahead for the grain prices the last few weeks of 2024? Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says historical and seasonal tendencies are at play in the grain markets. However, South American weather will also be a focus.
Key agricultural and environmental regulations face an uncertain future as administration change looms.
Dr. Vince Malanga, president of LaSalle Economics, discussed potential economic activity drivers in the coming months, emphasizing the influence of inventory adjustments ahead of possible tariff implementations.
Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete, says soybeans fell with rain in Brazil and big crop forecasts, plus a disappointing NOPA crush report.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains try to hold early gains. Nearby live cattle futures made new highs for the move pushed by sharply higher cash in the North at mostly $196, the South was at mostly $191.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says after the 200 million bushel cut to corn ending stocks in the December WASDE he wonders if USDA is preparing the marketplace for more of the same in the final January report?
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says corn saw continued technical selling and profit taking after the inability to take out chart resistance.
U.S. manufacturers are scrambling to secure critical parts and raw materials as new tariffs loom under Donald Trump’s presidency.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says soybeans are seeing profit taking on South American weather and despite another 7.3 million bu. of export business this morning,
The U.S. agriculture industry has started talks with Donald Trump’s transition team in a bid to advocate for the sector as the president-elect pledges tariffs and mass deportations.
CPC said, “Weak La Niña conditions would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance.”
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says corn ended lower on a combination of profit taking and farmer selling after running into chart resistance.
Mark Schultz, NorthStar Commodity, says corn and soybeans are overbought and failed to get above resistance on the charts which is triggering profit taking. Live cattle make new highs for the move on sharply higher cash trade.
EPA’s investigation into used cooking oil (UCO) imports is directly related to biofuel tax incentives and compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program.
The government’s Dietary Guidelines Advisory (DGA) Committee released its report, recommending reduced consumption of added sugars and red meat.
Alan Brugler of A&N Economics, LLC says corn started higher still digesting the bullish cut to ending stocks in the December WASDE but ran into chart resistance.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says grains are extending gains from Tuesday on technical and fund buying as the markets. The markets are still digesting the bullish USDA report data for corn and even wheat.
For the ag sector, Brazil is positioned to be the big winner and France the big loser.
Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions, says grains close higher after the WASDE and USDA’s surprise cut in corn ending stocks by 200 million bushels.