Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says Mexico, Canada and China are the top three export customers of the U.S. and account for 40% of total exports. So, if these countries retaliate it could be devasting for trade and ag markets.
A recap of this week’s price action and outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says the markets shook off tariff talk and saw positioning end of month and before first notice day Friday.
The latest data from the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to show very little reason to expect a full blown La Niña in the next few months.
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says corn and soybeans slid on possible tariffs being placed on Mexico, Canada and China. Wheat ends higher on short covering.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says market reaction has been muted to possible 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China on the first day of the Trump administration.
Trump’s ability to bypass Congress through executive orders provides him with a powerful tool to reshape SNAP and other welfare programs.
Mexico is making a strategic push to boost its role in global trade.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says soybeans built on Friday’s bullish reversal with talk China is looking for more U.S. soybeans. Cattle had a volatile session with a bearish Cattle on Feed Report and sorting through import restrictions on Mexican cattle due to New World Screwworm.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures shook off the bearish Cattle on Feed Report numbers with an announcement of New World Screwworm detected in Mexico. Soybeans built on the key reversal Friday on talk of China buying U.S. soybeans.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage says farmers need to use the strong basis levels, especially on corn, to make some cash sales. However, there are options they can use to take advantage of a rally later on.
Key changes in estate and gift tax exemptions and valuation rules for 2025 offer expanded benefits, though some are temporary:
The question becomes whether threats of tariffs include barring used cooking oil imports outright or merely tariffing the product, especially from China.
The Department of Energy (DOE) released its SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap Implementation Framework, outlining strategies to produce 3 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030.
There is evidence the supply-side of the 2024/25 balance sheets for corn and soybeans is still a moving target, which means there’s potential for more market volatility in the next six weeks. On the demand side, questions remain as well.
Don Roose U.S. Commodities says grains were under pressure on technical selling, a lack of bullish news and the higher dollar. March soybeans made new contract lows with the lower soybean oil, favorable weather in Brazil and tariff fears.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are being led by the feeders and the cash market which is on fire out in the country. Grains are sliding early despite solid export business.
Brazil and China signed 37 deals covering agriculture, tech cooperation, trade and investments, infrastructure, industry, energy and mining, among other areas.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says corn and wheat held risk premium tied to the escalating conflict in the Black Sea and despite a higher dollar.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier with Summit Commodity Brokerage says grains are facing the headwind of returning strength in the U.S. dollar index and the lack of weather threats. Soybean oil losses are additionally pulling down soybeans.
The emphasis on domestic agriculture reflects a broader trend in Mexican policy that could challenge existing trade agreements and alter the dynamics of agricultural exports between the two countries.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says wheat was up for a third day continuing to see short covering by managed money traders and adding war premium. However, corn could not follow with soybeans as an anchor.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, says wheat is higher for a third day seeing short covering and adding risk premium with tension escalating in the Black Sea and threats by Russia to use nuclear weapons.
Robin Niblett stresses the necessity of managing this new cold war carefully to prevent it from escalating into a hot conflict, a scenario that would have devastating global consequences.
Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge, says wheat led the rally in the grains initially on a weaker dollar and adding geopolitical premium.
Includes $24 billion for USDA and $40 billion for FEMA.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live cattle have held chart support so far even with lower cash and cutouts but feeders are the real leaders as funds continue to buy. Grains find strength on wheat’s lead and with a lower dollar.
Morgan Stanley downgraded China to slight “underweight” from “equal weight” in emerging markets, with analysts noting efforts to revive the economy and a Republican sweep of Congress and the White House could significantly impact markets.
North Dakota regulators on Friday approved Summit Carbon Solutions’ application for a permit to run a section of its carbon dioxide pipeline through the state and store the captured greenhouse gas underground.
Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says grains held technical support areas on Friday and saw corrective buying. She thinks the recovery can continue after Thanksgiving.