Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Alan Brugler, A and N Economics says to keep corn and soybean prices moving higher the U.S. will need to see continued demand through the end of the year, which may be difficult with the fear of tariffs.
We recap this week’s price action and provide outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
USDA provides a bullish surprise on corn and soybean yields and ending stocks but little change on wheat. Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net breaks down the report.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says grains are mixed ahead of the WASDE and despite more flash export sales. Cattle futures are under pressure with Choice boxes down over $6 and light cash at $188, also down from last week.
USDA’s 10-year baseline projections are based on data as of October and assume no policy changes. USDA’s initial assumptions for 2025-26...
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says soybeans ended with nearly 23 cent gains in the January contract on the heels of new highs for the move in the soybean oil market, spread unwinding with corn and solid weekly exports.
Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says grains open mixed digesting strong weekly exports and positioning ahead of the FOMC announcement and WASDE.
Chinese President Xi Jinping would much prefer to avoid a tariff battle that risks proving much more devastating than the first round.
Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions, says it was an impressive that grains, especially the soybean complex, shook off the election results, possible tariff hikes and a sharply higher dollar.
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says grains started off lower with soybeans seeing double digit gains on the possibility of increased tariffs and a trade war with China, then bounced off the lows.
U.S. agricultural exports totaled $13.13 billion in September against imports of $17.39 billion, resulting in a monthly trade deficit of $4.26 billion.
Jeff Hoogendoorn with Professional Ag Marketing says the grain markets were supported by strong demand and the lower dollar but also positioning ahead of the election, FOMC decision and WASDE.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says grains and livestock markets are positioning ahead of the election, FOMC announcement and the WASDE on Friday.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, though Malanga signals future economic stability may be threatened by conflicting survey data, recent steepening of the yield curve, and a federal deficit near 7% of GDP.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says strong demand continues to support corn and soybeans but it hasn’t been enough to push prices above chart resistance.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says grains are seeing support from strong demand and more export business. Cattle consolidate with election uncertainty, while hogs rebound from early weakness in all but the December contract to make new highs.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says as harvest wraps up it is a good time to review the year’s markets.
We recap this week’s price action and provide outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says corn and soybeans were supported by strong demand initially but ended off highs running into chart resistance and on election jitters. After another volatile day in cattle is the market topping?
Darin Newsom, Sr. Market Analyst with Barchart says some of the early support in the grain markets Friday morning is coming from strong export demand.
Joe Santos, Director of the Ness School of Management and Economics at SDSU, says, “Interest rates if they remain relatively high compared to history I think that will continue to tighten economic performance in general including agricultural performance.”
Agriculture powerhouse Brazil has an abundance of cheap crops to make biofuels, providing the nation a leg up on competitors including the United States.
SovEcon further lowered its 2024-25 grain export estimates, citing new restrictions prohibiting sales of Russian grain by foreign third parties to sovereign buyers at tenders.
Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says soybeans saw a nice short covering bounce on the heels of a rally in soybean oil and more flash export sales to China and unknown.
Canadian renewable fuels producers are facing lower returns on new facilities due to a slump in British Columbia’s low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credit market, a trend expected to persist amid a flood of imports from the United States.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says wheat led gains putting in risk premium on the low crop rating which triggers some short covering and corn followed.
Grain futures are seeing corrective buying, bouncing off technical support says Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures.
The lack of guidance for a new clean-fuel tax credit is causing biofuels producers to put off some purchases of soyoil for early next year.
Arlan Suderman with StoneX says grains saw technical and risk off selling from sharply lower crude oil. However, improved rains in South America were also a factor.
Cattle are trading two-sided early as Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the market is digesting the USDA Cattle on Feed Report. Grains are seeing pressure from a number of bearish factors.