Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Tommy Grisafi, Advance Trading, says grains faded bullish export news and closed lower Friday and for the week.
Craig Turner of StoneX says end users have seen current grain prices as a value which has supported the markets and if you add in inflation grains could be carving out new trading ranges.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that wars, trade tensions, high debt and low growth threaten to prolong a lackluster economic era.
Grains reverse to close higher Thursday as Darin Newsom with Barchart says end user or commercial buying stepped in. He says there is strong demand for corn in soybeans at current price levels which is a bullish sign.
This represents the first-ever large-scale alcohol-to-jet project to receive such a commitment from DOE and aligns with the growing demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and the aviation industry’s efforts to reduce its carbon footprint.
He emphasized his plans for dramatic tariff increases and closer consultation with the Federal Reserve, asserting these measures would lead to substantial economic growth.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says corn and wheat traded higher on technical or corrective buying as well as big flash export sales, noteably to Mexico.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says corn and soybeans are up after the news of 80 million bushels of corn sales and 6.4 million bushels of soybeans sales. Cattle opened higher before profit taking and hedge pressure set in.
The research underscores the importance of thoughtful consideration regarding the impacts of tariffs and tariff retaliation on U.S. farms and rural communities, as the potential consequences could be far-reaching and long-lasting.
One reason for the continuation of the tariffs “is we really haven’t seen the PRC make any changes to its fundamental systemic structural policies that would make sense for us to provide any relaxation,” she said.
Vince Boddicker of Farmers Trading Company says funds were back selling in the grain markets with risk off spillover from outside markets including an implosion in crude oil.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grain markets are seeing pressure from harvest, weather and renewed fund selling. All the markets are flirting with key support levels on the charts.
Beef production is now forecast to increase marginally from year-ago and rise another 4.1% next year.
Kent Beadle of Paradigm Futures says grains saw follow through selling pressure after a lower day Friday. The complex also saw spillover from the risk off day in outside markets including the higher dollar and lower crude oil.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are mostly higher early Monday on better cash news and trying to negate Friday’s reversal. Grains are seeing pressure from harvest and South American rain chances.
The October WASDE effectively solidified the supply side of the U.S. corn and soybean balance sheets for the 2024-25 marketing year, though Gulke was surprised USDA didn’t raise yields because harvest has never been so good on his farm.
Unlike some past years, the October report didn’t provide much for the bulls or the bears. USDA did raise corn yield 0.2 bu. per acre to a record 183.8 bu. and lowered soybean yield 0.1 bu. per acre to 53.1 bu.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures says after a non eventful WASDE, grains saw some profit taking heading into the weekend with row crops seeing harvest pressure.
We recap this week’s price action and provide outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures need to take out the next layer of chart resistance to move higher. Grains continue to add war and weather premium and that shouldn’t change unless the WASDE is extremely bearish.
The Kansas City Federal Reserve’s latest Ag Finance Update showed farm debt has risen, but delinquencies are low.
John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says the row crop markets are seeing continued pressure from three main fundamentals.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says wheat is higher adding war premium but soybeans and corn are seeing harvest pressure and trading South American weather.
Exports of Canadian grain for the first month of the 2024-25 marketing year were off to a good start with data from the Canadian Grain Commission showing increases for several crops.
The Amazon region of northern Brazil continues to suffer under the worst drought in 120 years, resulting in the lowest water level at the Port of Manaus in 122 years.
The Container Port Performance Index 2023 reveals a stark contrast between Chinese and American port efficiencies.
Brian Grete, Pro Farmer, says wheat was supported by light fund short covering as traders were adding in some geopolitical risk premium.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the cash cattle trade will likely be steady this week which may mean the futures could stall out. He thinks the party could be over in row crops.
Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, thinks the party is over in the grains, at least for now, due to several key factors.
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says several factors combined to pressure the grain markets Friday. Whether or not the rally is over depends on global weather and the October WASDE.