Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Darren Frye, Water Street Advisory, says the 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed was anticipated but is friendly for the ag markets.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says November soybeans are finally above the 50 day moving average for a number of reasons, including more talk of China business.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the cattle market has just felt better the last week with cash finally bottoming and futures posting a higher weekly close.
Financial analyst says the next 48 days might be a good time to just ‘lay low and take a little off the table.’
The contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) is set to expire on Sept. 30.
The Brazilian Chamber of Deputies approved the “Fuels of the Future” bill last week, which could increase soybean crushing for biodiesel production.
Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 158.0 million bu. of soybeans during August.
Remnants of Hurricane Francine produced significant rains across the northern Delta and Tennessee River basin, but World Weather Inc. says water levels on the lower Mississippi river will rise for only a few days before falling again.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says wheat led the grain complex lower after better rain forecasts for U.S. and Black Sea production areas, but all the grain markets ran into chart resistance.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cash cattle market put in a low last week and futures were sharply higher so the market just feels better. Soybeans and corn may have put in seasonal lows but he cautions further upside may be capped by harvest pressure.
Corn and wheat ended higher for a third week, while soybeans have put in four weeks of higher closes. Alan Brugler thinks wheat might be trying to forge a low, but it might be too early to make that call on corn and soybeans.
Environmental groups challenge the EPA’s 2023 decision to deny a petition for stricter regulations, arguing that the agency is neglecting its duty to control CAFO pollution.
We recap this week’s price action and provide outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says early cash has been steady at $181 in the South helping to push cattle futures. Row crops are extending gains post WASDE, while wheat adds weather premium.
The report recommends moving away from the current system of subsidies based on land size to one focused on farmer income.
The House approved the Protecting American Agriculture from Foreign Adversaries Act, aimed at increasing oversight of farmland purchases by foreign investors, particularly those from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says soybeans fell on a combination of factors including higher yield ideas in the USDA Report.
Reuters reported USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack is “confident” the clean fuels tax credit will be finalized by end of the Biden administration in January.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says soybeans saw profit taking with better than expected ratings, reigniting fears of higher yields in the September WASDE. Corn saw spillover from lower soybeans and crude oil.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, thinks the biggest yield numbers have already been traded in the corn and soybean markets and represent the contract lows in August.
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist with StoneX, says record yields may already be priced into the market but USDA will need to verify that or corn and soybeans may retest the lows.
The decline was partially due to lower total national supply (down 1% to 38.7 MMT).
Arlan Suderman with StoneX talks about what he’s watching for in the WASDE and harvest results to determine if harvest lows have been forged in corn and soybeans.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, expects cash cattle and futures to recover this week if the stock market can stablilize. Soybeans rebound on China business and South American weather, but corn fails.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk says grain markets scored reversals Friday on profit taking by fund traders after hitting key chart resistance. However, it was triggered by the bearish outside markets and caution ahead of the September WASDE Report.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says new crop corn and soybean charts are signaling the September WASDE might be bearish and confirm the large crop size.
Federal Reserve policymakers said they are ready to lower interest rates at the U.S. central bank’s meeting in two weeks.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says bearish outside markets spilled over to cause risk off selling in grain and livestock futures Friday, but grain markets says some profit taking and positioning ahead of the WASDE.
A recap of this week’s price action and outlook broken down into the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says grains have had a good run on fund short covering and will need some new bullish news to keep going and get above chart resistance.