Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cash cattle market put in a low last week and futures were sharply higher so the market just feels better. Soybeans and corn may have put in seasonal lows but he cautions further upside may be capped by harvest pressure.
Corn and wheat ended higher for a third week, while soybeans have put in four weeks of higher closes. Alan Brugler thinks wheat might be trying to forge a low, but it might be too early to make that call on corn and soybeans.
Environmental groups challenge the EPA’s 2023 decision to deny a petition for stricter regulations, arguing that the agency is neglecting its duty to control CAFO pollution.
We recap this week’s price action and provide outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says early cash has been steady at $181 in the South helping to push cattle futures. Row crops are extending gains post WASDE, while wheat adds weather premium.
The report recommends moving away from the current system of subsidies based on land size to one focused on farmer income.
The House approved the Protecting American Agriculture from Foreign Adversaries Act, aimed at increasing oversight of farmland purchases by foreign investors, particularly those from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says soybeans fell on a combination of factors including higher yield ideas in the USDA Report.
Reuters reported USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack is “confident” the clean fuels tax credit will be finalized by end of the Biden administration in January.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says soybeans saw profit taking with better than expected ratings, reigniting fears of higher yields in the September WASDE. Corn saw spillover from lower soybeans and crude oil.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, thinks the biggest yield numbers have already been traded in the corn and soybean markets and represent the contract lows in August.
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist with StoneX, says record yields may already be priced into the market but USDA will need to verify that or corn and soybeans may retest the lows.
The decline was partially due to lower total national supply (down 1% to 38.7 MMT).
Arlan Suderman with StoneX talks about what he’s watching for in the WASDE and harvest results to determine if harvest lows have been forged in corn and soybeans.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, expects cash cattle and futures to recover this week if the stock market can stablilize. Soybeans rebound on China business and South American weather, but corn fails.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk says grain markets scored reversals Friday on profit taking by fund traders after hitting key chart resistance. However, it was triggered by the bearish outside markets and caution ahead of the September WASDE Report.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says new crop corn and soybean charts are signaling the September WASDE might be bearish and confirm the large crop size.
Federal Reserve policymakers said they are ready to lower interest rates at the U.S. central bank’s meeting in two weeks.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says bearish outside markets spilled over to cause risk off selling in grain and livestock futures Friday, but grain markets says some profit taking and positioning ahead of the WASDE.
A recap of this week’s price action and outlook broken down into the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says grains have had a good run on fund short covering and will need some new bullish news to keep going and get above chart resistance.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says corn and wheat saw some profit taking after a nice rally, while soybeans powered back on export business and South American weather.
The House is preparing to vote next week on legislation aimed at restricting foreign ownership of U.S. agricultural land, particularly targeting purchases by entities connected to China.
The SAF Coalition has formed, representing nearly 40 major airlines, airports, manufacturers and biofuel producers, lobbying Congress to provide a larger and longer-lasting tax incentive for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says grains are seeing near term support from global weather concerns and improving demand. Livestock end in the red with a poor technical close in cattle on lower cash.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are reacting to early cash which was lower but he says he is still looking for steady money. Grains take a breather, but he thinks that rally will continue with better demand and South American concerns.
Low water conditions have led to several barges running aground along a key stretch of the lower Mississippi River, the U.S. Coast Guard told Reuters.
Rich Nelson with Allendale says supply and demand factors are combining to push the market higher and he isn’t sure the rally is over yet.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says grains are pricing in ideas that corn and soybean yields are not as big as feared. That’s what they found in their nationwide annual yield survey. However, South America’s crop size may also be declining. So what will that mean for the September WASDE and can grain prices continue to rally as a result?
A push by India to make more corn-based ethanol has turned Asia’s top corn exporter into a net importer for the first time in decades, squeezing local poultry producers and scrambling global supply chains.