Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Grains try to bounce after making near term lows Tuesday. Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says markets are trading weather and positioning ahead of delivery and USDA reports.
Don Roose of U.S. Commodities says funds are selling in the grains markets due to bearish technical signals and lower seasonals, plus gearing up for bearish USDA Reports.
Grains see another bloodbath on Tuesday with new lows for the move scored across the complex. Don Roose of U.S. Commodities says funds are aggressively selling and are record short for this time of year.
Grains break to new lows on fund selling says Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag. He says the market is totally disregarding lower crop ratings and flooding in the Northwestern Corn Belt.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, says corn and beans took out the March lows and may have put in exhaustion lows. “It looks to me like the grain markets are washed out here,” he states.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, says soybeans rally with corrective buying following meal, but corn and wheat end mostly lower ahead of USDA Reports.
There are concerns about potential fraud in used cooking oil (UCO) trade as demand for feedstocks to produce biofuels in the U.S. increases.
Ag markets are mostly lower Monday except cattle and nearby soybeans. The record cash cattle trade is trumping the bearish Cattle on Feed Report, says Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek.
Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities, says every year weather can make the markets volatile, making it difficult for farmers to price their grain or do risk management.
Although a strike is not imminent, shippers are taking the threat seriously, with some diverting cargo to West Coast ports to avoid disruptions.
A recap of the week’s price action, with outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Milk prices had a nearly $5 rally from the April lows but have since pulled back. Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says cheese prices will dictate where prices head next and so far consumer demand has stalled.
The new CBO projections “prove what we have been saying all along: the House Republican farm bill is unpaid-for, relying on magic math and wishful thinking,” Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) said.
Michigan’s ag department will provide the grant money for to up to 20 farms from its emergency response funds.
The Fed is expected to start lowering interest rates by the end of the year. Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, says this may keep fund money away from the grain markets.
Row crops recovered on Tuesday, while cattle posted another lower day. Brad Kooima, Kooima Varilek says all those markets saw corrective action.
Live cattle futures fall a second day in what Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek calls routine profit taking. Row crops see a technical bounce with lower crop ratings.
The world’s renewable fuel makers will face a waste oil supply crunch, Bloomberg reports.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says corn and soybeans try to bounce as they are technically oversold and with a 2% drop in crop ratings, wheat tries to follow but fails.
The Iowa Department of Agriculture reported another dairy herd infected with H5N1, making a total of six herds infected in the state.
Grain markets were sharply lower on Monday on fund selling and improved extended weather forecasts for the Eastern Corn Belt says Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures
Grains were sharply lower on fund selling, but row crops were also pressed by extended weather. Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says technical damage has been done on grain charts. While livestock saw consolidation.
Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 183.6 million bu. of soybeans during May, 5.2 million bu. more than the average pre-report estimate and a record for the month.
Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities, says grains will be watching weather and gearing up for the USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Reports in the week ahead.
A lackluster WASDE report had the same effect on the markets this week. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, doesn’t think there’s going to be a whole lot of change in acreage in USDA’s report at the end of June.
Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities, says grains end lower. Row crops see profit taking, with harvest pressure in wheat. Cattle made new near-term highs pushed by record cash, hogs bounce.
The U.S. is worried the port’s ability to handle megaships directly between Peru and China could shift trade dynamics, making it easier for China to extract and control South American resources.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart, says grains down early on profit taking and hedge pressure in wheat, but watching weather and demand. Cattle continue higher following cash.
The landscape for U.S. renewable diesel production has changed dramatically, similar to the growth of ethanol and biodiesel in the past two decades, according to a report from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
La Niña patterns tend to produce hotter conditions across the central and eastern United States.