PRO FARMER MIDWEST CROP TOUR STATE RESULTS...
Ohio corn yield: 110.5 bu./acre, 156.26 bu./acre in 2011, 3-year avg. 160.53 bu.
Ohio bean pod count in 3’X3' square: 1,033.72, 1,253.21 in 2011, 3-year avg. 1,240.85.
South Dakota corn yield: 74.26 bu./acre, 141.1 bu./acre in 2011, 3-year avg. 143.88 bu.
South Dakota pod count in 3’X3' square: 584.93, 1,106.66 in 2011, 3-year avg. 1,116.87.
Indiana corn yield: 113.25 bu./acre, 143.10 bu./acre in 2011, 3-year avg. 155.84 bu.
Indiana pod count in 3’X3' square: 1,033.24, 1,137.56 in 2011, 3-year avg. 1,190.37.
Nebraska corn yield: 131.79 bu./acre, 153.70 bu./acre in 2011, 3-year avg. 156.94 bu.
Nebraska pod count in 3’X3' square: 894.43, 1,286.48 in 2011, 3-year avg. 1,277.24.
Illinois corn yield: 121.6 bu./acre, 155.99 bu./acre in 2011, 3-year avg. 163.23 bu.
Illinois pod count in 3’X3' square: 944.05, 1,196.04 in 2011, 3-year avg.1,202.38.
Iowa corn yield: 137.27 bu./acre, 164.62 bu./acre in 2011, 3-year avg. 171.66 bu.
Iowa pod count in 3’X3' square: 999.80, 1,221.94 in 2011, 3-year avg. 1,255.50.
Minnesota corn yield: 156.19 bu./acre, 175.93 bu./acre in 2011, 3-year avg. 182.23 bu.
Minnesota pod count in 3’X3' square: 934.35, 1,124.20 in 2011, 3-year avg.1,115.85.
PRO FARMER ISSUES 2012 CORN AND SOYBEAN ESTIMATES...
2012 U.S. corn crop at 10.478 billion bu.; avg. yield 120.25 bu. per acre
+/- 1% = 10.374 billion bu. to 10.583 billion bu.; 119.05 bu. to 121.45 bu. per acre
2012 U.S. soybean crop at 2.60 billion bu.; avg. yield of 34.8 bu. per acre
+/- 2% = 2.548 billion bu. to 2.652 billion bu.; 34.1 bu. to 35.5 bu. per acre
NOTE: We’ve made some adjustments to the acreage assumptions. Based o n FSA certified acreage data we anticipate increases in planted acreage for both corn and soybeans. However, we are anticipating a harvested acreage percentage of 89.5% for corn and a slight downward adjustment in the harvested acreage percentage for soybeans.
CORN
Ohio: 124 bu. per acre. The Midwest drought started in northwest Ohio. South and east of there extreme moisture and heat stress will guarantee below-average corn yields.
Indiana: 101 bu. per acre. Eastern Indiana showed extreme drought stress. A lack of ears and grain length pulled yields down.
Illinois: 116 bu. per acre. The eastern half of Illinois was the epicenter of this summer’s drought — and it was proven by this year’s Tour. Corn yields were better in some western and northern areas of the state, but standability is a major issue.
Iowa: 139 bu. per acre. Corn yields in the western one-third of the state were down 11% from last year, but the real problem is in the eastern two thirds of the state. Iowa’s early start to the growing season turned into a mid-season nightmare for corn trying to pollinate and fill kernels.
Minnesota: 152 bu. per acre. Crop District 7 is the problem in Minnesota as is the western half of Crop District 8. Corn yield and plant health improved dramatically in the eastern half of the state where yield potential is very good.
Nebraska: 138 bu. per acre. Kernel size is the villain in Nebraska, and that is what makes the Husker state a swing state on corn yields. Even irrigated yields were off about 10% from year-ago, while dryland corn yields will be determined by kernel size.
South Dakota: 85 bu. per acre. We hit South Dakota hard on harvested acres and yield. This was absolutely the worst corn crop we’ve sampled since 1998 when the Crop Tour started in the western Belt.
SOYBEANS
Ohio: 40 bu. per acre. In addition to low pod counts, heavy weed pressure in some of the state may hold down yields even more than indicated on the Tour.
Indiana: 36 bu. per acre. This is where we started to see the trend of pods not forming on the lower half of plants. The lack of production factory hurts yield potential.
Illinois: 36 bu. per acre. The crop must work to hold onto what yield potential is there, as the crop is done blooming. Extremely dry soils could lead to pod abortion and further reduction in yields.
Iowa: 41 bu. per acre. Iowa’s soybeans are the “least bad” of a disappointing western Corn Belt bean crop. A lack of soil moisture at Tour time nearly guarantees a smaller-than-normal bean size will weigh on average yields.
Minnesota: 36.5 bu. per acre. Crop Tour pod counts were even worse than expected. The growing season for northern Corn Belt beans seems to have put stress on yield potential from planting through Tour time.
Nebraska: 42 bu. per acre. Even in a drought year, Nebraska’s ability to give beans a drink when they need it will keep the state at the top of the nation’s soybean yields.
South Dakota: 28 bu. per acre. Soybeans haven’t earned a spot under pivots in South Dakota yet. As a result, we see serious sub-30 yield potential for beans.
General Observation: The bean crop from Ohio to Nebraska needs a drink right now to realize these yield estimates.
USDA’S VILSACK COMMENTS ON THIS YEAR’S CORN CROP... USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack is a cabinet cheerleader for ethanol and has previously stated no changes in the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) are needed. But, with each projection/estimate of this year’s U.S. corn crop, Vilsack keeps changing how the production level stacks up to prior years. However, even now, Vilsack remains the ethanol cheerleader and continues to signal no changes are needed in the RFS mandate.
In an Aug. 23 phone interview with the Capital Press, Vilsack said, first and foremost, the federal government needs to “have a good understanding of precisely what our yields are going to be this year. We don’t know. We have estimates. And if the estimates are correct, it would be the eighth largest corn crop in the country’s history.”
So, Vilsack says the U.S. corn crop is currently the eighth largest. That would make the 2006 corn crop the ninth largest and the 2005 crop the seventh largest.
Washington Consultant Jim Wiesemeyer has compiled a comparison of the Supply & Demand situation for the 2005-06, 2006-07 and 2012-13 marketing years at this link. Note the differences in acreage and ethanol production for the years, as well as the price differences. Also, note the percentage of the crop used for ethanol — in 2005-06 it was 14.4%; in 2006-07 it was 20%; and in 2012-13 it is estimated at 41.7%. And, compare the feed and residual use estimates for the years and you will see that the animal sector is the primary price-rationing element this year. Vilsack does not include those dramatic changes in his utterances on the topic.
