China
New tariffs on goods from countries trading with Iran risks derailing his one-year trade truce with China.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX says the move surprised him even though their customer survey’s during the season had yield at 186 bu.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says the trade guesses are fairly conservative with not many changes expected. However, that is not the history of the January reports. So could there be a surprise?
Live and feeder cattle futures were lower early Friday but Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it didn’t take long for the markets to firm up supported by the cash market.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading says the soybean market faded after hitting chart resistance but also seemed disappointed with the lack of confirmed China export business. The grain complex also saw report positioning.
The grain markets were mixed early Thursday squaring ahead of the USDA reports. DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says that could keep the markets quiet the next few sessions.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk attributes the rally mostly to corrective buying after a $1.40 break from the highs in soybeans. Traders are also short in the wheat market, which just came off of contract lows in SRW futures.
The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows the farm economy will likely stay strained into 2026. As crops face tight margins, biofuels policy — especially E15 and biomass-based diesel — could influence recovery.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, says the grain complex may be some rebalancing by hedge and index fund traders to start a new year and with grains under valued.
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says soybeans sold off in a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact,” reaction to USDA confirming China export sales.