Market Analysis
Market analysts says the September WASDE did not fully account for the disease pressure and dry finish in the East in both the corn and soybean crop.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are higher again on Friday morning with the third day of recovery after Tuesday’s melt down. They need to close above Thursday’s highs to have a shot at retesting the record highs.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says while he thinks the corn and soybean crops are getting smaller he’s not sure if it will be reflected in the September WASDE.
Mike Minor of Professional Ag Marketing says last year USDA raised yield .5 bu. in the September report and left soybean yield unchanged, despite dry conditions to finish the crop.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says grains saw technical selling pressure ahead of the WASDE. The agency doesn’t normally make huge changes in the September report and the market may be more worried about demand than supply.
Craig Turner with StoneX says corn and soybeans drifted early Wednesday ahead of the September WASDE as the market tries to determine how much USDA will lower yield.
Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says grain markets saw profit taking after the higher closes on Monday. And the ugly day in the cattle market was tied to technical selling.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says grains were quietly mixed early Tuesday positioning ahead of the September WASDE. She expects USDA to modestly cut corn and soybean yields but they could also cut demand.
Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing says corn and soybeans saw a technical bounce and buying after holding chart support.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the uptrend line on the cattle charts is also starting to be violated but that isn’t the only thing he’s watching for a signal of a bigger correction.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says corn was slightly lower for the week but held support. The performance was a victory, considering the large infusion of bearish news the corn market had to absorb.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says corn futures ended lower on Friday on profit taking and were down nearly 2-cents for the week. However, December still held the 50-day moving average.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says corn is working on its third higher weekly close, which continues to help confirm the fall low set on August 12. Soybeans are still looking for China export business but could they be buying under unknown destinations?
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says corn shook off early losses after bouncing off support on the charts.
Brady Huck with Advance Trading says corn and soybeans continue to see profit taking and consolidation after the recent run off the August lows. Currently both markets are testing key support that needs to hold.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says corn saw some profit taking after hitting chart resistance as the December contract neared $4.25, which coincided with the 38% retracement level.
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, says soybeans saw risk off selling as China aligned itself with Russia and India, which signals no deal between the U.S. and China any time soon.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are back into new contract and all-time highs after showing considerable resilience last week and despite a selloff in the equities. Grains sell off on tariff concerns.
Gulke says next week’s action in corn futures is important because a continued rally could provide the first buy signal in the corn market in over six months.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says grains rallied with corn leading the charge on end of month short covering and ahead of a long holiday weekend.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures saw end of month profit taking on Thursday and some follow through selling to start Friday.
Inflation adjusted cost of production for corn has been consistently high since 2012
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says grain futures all ended slightly higher Thursday with end of month positioning and profit taking.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says the grain markets saw selling pressure from a stronger dollar and some liquidation ahead of first notice day on Friday and on end of the month liquidation.
Mark Knight of Farmers Keeper Financial says corn is drifting lower with some end of month profit taking and after having digested the lower yield estimates from the Pro Farmer crop tour.
Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures says corn has consolidated the last two sessions after hitting chart resistance at $4.17 and may wait for combine results before taking out that level.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says corn is drifting Tuesday with some consolidation after hitting chart resistance on Monday and with liquidation ahead of first notice day on Friday and the end of the month.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says soybeans sank on profit taking and could see further liquidation going into first notice day and end of the month.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the opening after a human case of New World screwworm (NWS) was announced over the weekend.
Pro Farmer economist Lane Akre says corn and soybeans posted higher weekly closes and should be able to build on that next week with the push from the lower yield and production estimates from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour.