Market Analysis
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle fundamentals look supportive through fourth quarter, while corn and soybeans are running into chart resistance.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says he was as surprised with USDA’s 188.8 bushel per corn acre yield as anyone, but their demand projections were even more surprising.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says corn December corn closed above the $4 level on Friday and was nearly steady for the week.
Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says he’s been impressed with how well the corn market has digested Tuesday’s bearish yield and production news.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, Inc. says fund or managed money traders have stepped back in as the market is coming back to the reality that the grain fundamentals are bearish.
Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities, says soybeans were higher still digesting the positive news from the WASDE report and pulled corn higher. While he thinks this is bottoming action in the soybeans but what about corn?
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says corn is following the soybean market early Wednesday after USDA shocked the market with a record 188.8 bu. yield and 2 million more harvested acres. So did the report bottom the markets?
Brian Splitt with AgMarket.Net says new crop corn fell to contract lows after the August WASDE in reaction to USDA’s eye-popping 188.8 bushel per acre corn yield. However, soybeans rallied with ending stocks falling under 300 million bushels.
If USDA predictions hold true, a massive U.S. corn crop is on the way.
Jeff Hoogendoorn with Professional Ag Marketing says the grain markets were lower on China disappointment. Lean hogs continue to be supported by lower slaughter figures which could be a tailwind into 4Q.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, Inc., says soybeans led the rally with nearly 24-cent gains in November on hopes for China export business. But the market may have gotten ahead of itself.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says there were signs in the cattle market prior to Friday’s sell-off indicating the market might be getting toppy. However, does the market negate the reversals like it has in the past?
Joe Glauber, senior research fellow with the International Food Policy Research Institute, says the trade imbalance may not be as concerning as it looks on the surface.
Grain markets failed to extend Thursday’s gains after hitting chart resistance and fear of record yields in the Aug. 12 WASDE. However, Shawn Hackett of Hackett Financial Advisors, says the market may have already priced in the biggest yields.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle saw some early profit taking pressure after contract and record highs again Thursday. However, the cattle futures have been resilient and every break seems to get bought, which is a good sign of a bull market.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grains markets all closed higher on Thursday as they were oversold and due for a corrective bounce.
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Sam Hudson with Corn Belt Marketing says corn made contract lows again Wednesday as funds continue to sell on record yield estimates from private firms. However, the pressure is about more than just yield.
Greg McBride with Allendale, Inc. says soybeans and wheat saw early strength on Wednesday but the markets have struggled to hold gains with corn making new contract lows again.
John Heinberg of Total Farm Marketing says funds sold across the grain complex pushing corn to new contract lows again. Corn saw pressure from historically high crop ratings and record yield estimates.
Brady Huck with Advance Trading, Inc. says corn continues to grind into new contract lows with a strong crop rating of 73% good to excellent on Monday and StoneX’s record 188.1 bushel yield forecast.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading Company says soybeans and meal both saw a short covering bounce after a long string of lower days, while corn made more contract lows.
So far pollination and disease issues are being discounted by the corn market. The key to how low prices could fall is dependent on just how much above 181 the corn yield is and will it show up in the Aug. 12 WASDE ?
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures started higher early Monday on the heels of record cash. Grains tried to bounce but may have a tough time holding any gains with favorable weather, big yield ideas and trade uncertainty.
Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says grain markets were lower on Friday and for the week with pressure coming from non-threatening weather, big yield ideas as well as trade concerns tied to tariffs.
Market keys for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are trying to recover after an ugly day Thursday that ended with bearish reversals. Grains are mixed on favorable weather and tariff news.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says corn and HRW wheat extended gains for a second day in what looked to be end of the month short covering by the funds.
Craig Turner, grain and oilseed analyst with StoneX says its the last trading day of the month and corn, soybeans and wheat are all poised to have bearish monthly lower closes.
Alan Brugler, A&N Economics, says soybeans sank on demand concerns with large global supplies and China continuing to buy from South America. November soybeans fell below $10 and project even lower.