Market Analysis
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle are trading lower Thursday morning with the retreat in the stock market. Grains are mixed ahead of the WASDE, but he doesn’t expect any market moving news from the report.
Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist says the markets reacted positively to the 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs for countries that reached out to negotiate with the U.S. and did not retaliate.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says grains are shaking off the news of an escalation of the trade war with China as they announced overnight they would be placing an additional 50% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods, including ag.
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says while the tariff news was a bit more subdued Tuesday the markets are still watching tariff headlines and that is impacting money flow in and out of the financial sector as well as the commodities.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst for Barchart, says it could just be an oversold bounce as the equity markets have reached bear market territory and that stabilization is helping to firm up the grain and especially the livestock futures.
Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says grains rebound as the market has absorbed much of the tariff news. Meanwhile, livestock saw follow through selling and triple digit losses.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says after a lower start the ag markets reversed with the stock market.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says one of the markets that was able to cut through the tariff noise and end higher for the week was corn.
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says soybeans, livestock and outside markets all had a negative response to China imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports of an additional 34%. But why was corn up for the week?
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the panic selling continues as China has hit back with a 34% retaliatory tariff on all U.S. goods and other trading partners are looking at counter measures. “This feels a lot like the COVID market response.”
Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says the markets saw risk off selling in response to President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. He says the markets may not stabilize until after the tariffs go into effect April 9 and trading partners tip their hand on retaliation.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodity Brokerage, says grains saw risk off selling and positioning ahead of President Trump’s Liberation Day announcement on tariffs. However, Mexico’s president says they don’t want a tit for tat trade war.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grains are not seeing follow through buying after the strong closes on Tuesday as the market is trading tariff fears.
Tommy Grisafi, Nesvick Trading, says grain futures saw risk on buying as traders were adding weather premium but biofuels news was also supportive.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the grain markets are still digesting the USDA report data but are looking ahead now at weather and the impact of “Liberation Day.”
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says the USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Reports usually generate plenty of fireworks but the reaction was rather benign.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle are seeing pressure on end of quarter profit taking by the funds who are still long in the market. Grains are mixed ahead of the big USDA reports.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says he expects more corn in the Dakotas and Minnesota but at the expense of more spring wheat than soybeans.
Not only is USDA releasing its first survey-based acreage report of the year, but it’s the week President Trump is set to unleash reciprocal tariffs. Market analysts warn it could be an explosive week in the markets, and farmers should prepare.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures expects high volatility at the end of the month and recommends farmers get some sort of risk management strategy in place to at least put a flood under grain prices.
Dan Basse, president of Ag Resource Company, says these tariffs are different than those imposed during the first Trump administration or even recently with the 10% increase on China imports.
Based on decades of experience, Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, is bracing for a big surprise in USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report on March 31.
Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle have been resilient continuing to shake off any bad news and uncover buying on any break. Grains continue to chop ahead of the weekend.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says corn was supported by strong demand with a 59 million bu. weekly export figure Thursday morning and unconfirmed talk that Brazil was buying U.S. corn.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says corn is higher again on solid demand and spreading with soybeans.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says all but old crop corn saw more pressure with the risk off attitude regarding tariffs and with acreage estimates being released. Meanwhile, weather propelled cattle to fresh highs.
Rich Nelson of Allendale says grains started lower and are quietly mixed awaiting tariff news and the big USDA reports at the end of the month. Allendale’s annual acreage survey confirms higher corn acres at the expense of soybeans.
Dan Basse, Ag Resource Company, says the February highs may be the highs for the year in corn and soybeans with the headwinds he sees ahead.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says wheat led the price rally and pulled up corn as traders were putting in weather premium and funds covered short positions. Feeder cattle made all-time highs.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle and hogs both saw gap higher openings and are seeing triple digit gains with help from the cash. Corn is higher following wheat, while soybeans lag.