Russia
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says grains took the path of least resistance on Wednesday trading lower with a lack of fresh bullish news.
Corn and wheat futures were lower early Wednesday seeing some profit taking after a higher close Tuesday says Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says the market was adding some geopolitical risk premium with tensions rising in the Black Sea region.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, Inc., says soybeans led the rally with nearly 24-cent gains in November on hopes for China export business. But the market may have gotten ahead of itself.
The Russian government ordered “necessary measures” to boost ag exports after wheat sales to start 2025-26 fell to their lowest since 2008.
“Let’s just put it this way, things are happening this spring we’ve never seen before,” says Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX.
Russia’s 2024-25 wheat exports are expected total 40.5 MMT.
The conflict in Ukraine has been a focus for certain markets, such as wheat, since Russia first invaded the country nearly three years ago. This past week, President Donald Trump said negotiations to end the war would start “immediately.”
Russia and China are simply not our friends.
Data from the state weather forecasting agency last week indicated that over 37% of winter crops are in poor condition or have not sprouted due to low moisture levels.
Jerry Gulke shares three things to know about the state of corn, soybean and wheat prices.
Chicago wheat futures rose on Thursday as Russia declared a state of emergency in key grain-growing regions due to frosts, while corn and soybeans also edged up.
Farmer and philanthropist Howard Buffett held a fireside chat during the 2024 Top Producer Summit to share his experiences visiting the front line of Ukraine over the past two years.
Experts are watching global dynamics to understand the input market’s longer-term outlook in the U.S. Among their top concerns are geopolitics, weather and low supply.
A Russian missile strike on Thursday hit eastern Ukraine, now considered one of the deadliest since the war started. Russia also attacked grain storage in the Odesa region, damaging a grain silo near the Danube River.
Roughly 37.6 million acres of U.S. ag land is foreign owned, according to USDA. However, select purchases of U.S. land could come to an end following a Senate vote this week.
Grain prices continue to rally as Russia ramped up attacks on Ukrainian ports on the River Danube. But agricultural economists and markets analysts point out the situation still hasn’t reached a worst-case scenario yet.
From growing tensions between Ukraine and Russia to forecasts for hot and dry weather across the Midwest, grain prices have been on a volatile run. Analysts think the volatility could heat up again next week.
The Kremlin said there was no link between the attack and suspending the deal, which lets Ukraine export grain through the Black Sea. Instead, it occurred over a failure to ease rules for food and fertilizer exports.
According to USDA, Russian-speaking hackers are the likely suspects. The Office of Personnel Management and two organizations within the Department of Energy also were apparently targeted or breached.
China’s exports to Russia reached a record high in April, amounting to $9.6 billion.
Last week was full of both bullish and bearish news for the wheat market. Arlan Suderman of Stone X Group says there are still several things that could spark momentum in the wheat market.
The Ukraine Black Sea grain deal has been extended for two more months, one day before Russia could have quit the pact over obstacles to its grain and fertilizer exports.
A key reversal in wheat after a drone strike at the Kremlin pulls corn and soybeans higher as well. AgDay’s Michelle Rook chats with Ted Seifried about the headlines and the market response.
Kansas typically accounts for 25% of the nation’s winter wheat production, but ongoing drought is weighing on overall crop conditions. Farmers are now facing the possibility of increased abandonment this year.
Wheat and corn exports out of the Black Sea region are at risk again as Ukrainian officials say Russia is taking action to block inspections of ships under the Black Sea grain initiative.
The Kremlin said the outlook for the landmark U.N.-brokered Black Sea grain deal was not great as promises to remove obstacles to Russian exports of agricultural and fertilizer exports had not been fulfilled.