Wheat
The grain and livestock futures saw commodity wide fund buying with a risk on tone to the market according to DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says some of the recovery is technical in nature as the June live cattle bounce off of key support and the 38% retracement level around $243.00 last Thursday. However, there are also fundamental reasons for bounce.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says corn and wheat are trading weather and have divorced from the war headlines.
This ranks as the fifth worst crop in history and it’s mainly tied to the fact 68% of the crop is in some level of drought. For Kansas, it could be as bad as 2023.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says $243 was the line in the sand for the June live cattle or funds would liquidate and it held after Brooke Rollins canceled her trip to Arizona which alleviated fears of a border reopening.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says the HRW wheat market was adding weather premium with forecasts continuing to look hot and dry for the Southern Plains.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, says wheat is holding weather premium with the deteriorating crop conditions but longer term higher energy prices could spark some inflationary buying in grains.
According to a letter sent to landowners and leasing partners, President Darrel Monette says this process will allow them to stabilize finances, restructure debt, and continue operating.
The soybean market looked like it was ready to breakout but Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing says they hit chart resistance and saw profit taking.
However, Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says the corn and soybean markets are at a crossroads in the new crop contracts and need a catalyst to get above resistance.
Soybeans and multi-year highs in the soybean oil market led the grain complex higher on Tuesday according to Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing.
Soybeans saw early gains Tuesday with help from a rally in both bean oil and soybean meal and that is supporting corn says Hillari Mason with Pro Farmer. However, several other factors were supporting early strength.
Alan Brugler with A&N Economics says corn got some support from higher crude oil and soft red winter wheat plus other demand fundamentals.
Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle futures held key support on Friday and are higher Monday but can the market retest the record highs?
Grains initially saw pressure in tandem with the plunge in the energy markets on Friday on optimism about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz but ended well off session lows says Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle plunged late week after contract highs due to fears of the border reopening to Mexican imports.
Wheat futures rallied on Thursday adding weather premium with expanding drought and a mostly dry forecast for the Western third of the Plains says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says funds are buying and covering short positions due to expanded drought in hard red winter wheat country on Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor and the lower crop conditions.
Rich Nelson with Allendale says while he doesn’t agree with it, the corn market was seeing some weather premium added on concerns about planting delays which takes away the argument for record acreage.
Brian Grete with CommStock Investments says soybeans were higher Wednesday on optimism about the mid-May meeting with China and corn was following.
According to Tommy Grisafi of Nesvick Trading money flow the last two sessions in the outside markets had a huge impact on ag markets.
Jon Scheve with Scheve Grain thinks the grain markets have transitioned over to trading more of its own fundamentals.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says the grains and energy sector started higher on war headlines but peaked out quickly by mid session acting like it wasn’t that concerned about the war.
Live cattle futures made new and all-time contract highs on Friday with the April contract closing above $250.
Don Roose with U.S. Commodities say soybeans followed meal and hold a premium on hopes of China business.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market has been impressive and resilient.
With wheat barely a foot tall, the flag leaf is already emerging—a sign the crop is rushing to reproduce under stress, leaving too little structure to support a harvest. Less than 10% may be harvested in West Texas.
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says, “USDA did rearrange some of the soybean demand estimates with crush raised 35 million bu. while exports were lowered the same amount.”
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says many markets were extracting risk or war premium on Wednesday.
Indiana farmer Jason Mauck uses his wheat crop as a “supporting actor” to increase soybean yields and boost profits.