Wheat
Grain markets closed strong on Friday and posted higher weekly closes across the complex. What drove the rally? Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net points to a few notable factors.
Price action summary and outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Live and feeder cattle futures were weaker to start Friday as the market was seeing some profit taking and caution ahead of the USDA Cattle on Feed Report according to Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says wheat saw support on a combination of technical buying or short covering and the market was adding some weather premium.
Soybeans continued to rally on Thursday. Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer, says this isn’t just short covering.
Greg McBride with Allendale, Inc. says hot, dry weather is expected in much of Argentina and Southern Brazil in the next 10 days and it is hitting at the critical pod filling stage for some of the soybean crop.
Soybean futures are higher early Wednesday with the easing of risk-off selling pressure.
Grains futures consolidated on Tuesday with risk-off selling tied to outside market concerns regarding possible EU tariffs and retaliation according to Oliver Sloup with Blue Line Futures.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says with the confirmation of no cases of NWS in the U.S. the cattle market should rebound Tuesday. However, with outside markets seeing risk off selling that may temper some of the buying interest in cattle.
After years of steady growth, the U.S. agricultural land market is shifting and stabilizing.
Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says with corn and soybean prices plunging at the beginning of the week in response to the bearish USDA report, the lower price levels stimulated end user buying.
John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says soybeans rallied with the surging bean oil market on Thursday on talk of favorable biofuels policy in the Renewable Fuels Standard.
Don Roose with U.S. Commodities says the bearish USDA report news has been largely factored in but corn and soybeans are establishing new lower trading ranges.
Corn and soybeans try to bounce Wednesday morning. Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says some of this is short covering or corrective buying as the market was oversold but he’s not sure the bearish USDA news is all digested.
Brian Grete with Commstock Investments says the corn market is still trying to digest the shock of USDA’s January reports. March corn futures came within striking distance of the Aug. 12 low at $4.10.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX says the move surprised him even though their customer survey’s during the season had yield at 186 bu.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says the trade guesses are fairly conservative with not many changes expected. However, that is not the history of the January reports. So could there be a surprise?
The January USDA reports have been historically a huge market mover and a great deal of the focus will be on final yields and production.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading says the soybean market faded after hitting chart resistance but also seemed disappointed with the lack of confirmed China export business. The grain complex also saw report positioning.
The grain markets were mixed early Thursday squaring ahead of the USDA reports. DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says that could keep the markets quiet the next few sessions.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk attributes the rally mostly to corrective buying after a $1.40 break from the highs in soybeans. Traders are also short in the wheat market, which just came off of contract lows in SRW futures.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, says the grain complex may be some rebalancing by hedge and index fund traders to start a new year and with grains under valued.
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says soybeans sold off in a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact,” reaction to USDA confirming China export sales.
Chuck Shelby of Risk Management Commodities says soybeans, corn and wheat were oversold and saw some corrective buying but there was also some risk on buying across the ag complex.
Grain markets are all higher to start the week. Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says some of the strength is tied to short covering after lower weekly closes in corn, soybeans and wheat last week.
Soybeans scored new lows for the move on the last trading day of 2025. Randy Martinson says the market saw technical selling with end of quarter and end of year positioning and favorable weather in Brazil.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says there is a general lack of news for the grain markets so some of the pressure is coming from end of the quarter and end of the year positioning by traders.
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says some algorithm trades moved the grain market with year end position squaring but there was also spillover from macro markets like gold and silver.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the live and feeder cattle futures board has remained sideways since around Dec. 11. However, there is one thing that could break that trend.
Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says the grains saw a Santa Claus rally on technical buying as under light volume its easier to move a market. Hogs reacted to the bearish Hogs and Pigs Report.