USDA Reports
On March 29, USDA will release its annual Prospective Plantings report. How will acres shake out this year?
Following the bearish report on Wednesday, grain markets closed higher for the week, which, according to Jerry Gulke, signals the market might believe there is more downside to yield.
After the June report, traders prepared for a “new” trading environment with “burdensome” corn supplies and “pipeline” soybean supplies. Then came the anticlimactic July report.
The July WASDE report was bearish for grains. The biggest disappointment for the bulls was USDA’s ending stocks figure for soybeans.
The biggest surprises included a 4-bu. reduction in corn yield and soybean ending stocks came in at 300 million bushels, which is 100 million bushels higher than trade estimates.
Historically, USDA makes very few changes this early in the season, with the most recent exception occurring in 2012.
USDA’s June Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports resulted in a bullish surprise for soybeans and bearish news for corn. In an already volatile grain market, the supply situation is problematic.
USDA’s June 30 Acreage report is generally a big market mover, but early trade estimates show little change from March, while quarterly stocks estimates indicate tighter supplies than 2022.
The June WASDE confirmed grain poor demand and growing U.S. supplies.
A bearish reset of the corn and soybean markets is underway as they transition from tight drought-stricken old crop supplies to record production levels in 2023-24.
The May WASDE will provide the first new crop estimates of the growing season and this could be a volatile report with the transition from tight old crop stocks to much larger supplies of corn and soybeans.
Brian Splitt, AgMarket.Net, says: USDA cut export demand for corn, ethanol and soybeans. That’s going to be the theme — a lower crop but also demand.
Ahead of the report, analysts expected a drop in corn yield, but not soybean yield — and the market responded quickly, says Bill Biedermann, AgMarket.Net co-founder.
Despite a soybean carryover number lower than market expectations in today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) from USDA, market reaction was muted with beans only up a quarter cent on the day.
As corn and soybean prices continue to trade in a narrow range, it’s easy to ignore the markets—don’t!
USDA’s end-of-March Prospective Plantings report always brings a few surprises. This year will likely be the same.
With markets in a pivotal paradigm, farmers and traders alike are waiting in anticipation for USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report to see if it can provide any bullish news.
In their Friday report, USDA noted that as of September 1 corn stocks were up 130 million bushels more than the average trade guess.
Trade uncertainty, large yields and excessive stocks create extra risk as farmers market their 2018 and 2019 crops.
As the week begins, Brian Splitt, a broker with Allendale Inc., and Tommy Grisafi, branch broker of Advance Trading, are talking to AgDay host Clinton Griffiths to discuss what they’re watching in commodity markets.
USDA reports stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat have fallen.
USDA estimated that U.S. growers will plant 97 million acres of corn this spring, an 8% increase over 2019, but analysts say recent sharp declines in ethanol production make it doubtful that number will hold true.
WASDE for February raised exports and lowered ending stocks for both corn and soybeans.
All eyes are on the corn supply and demand numbers in USDA’s September WASDE report but there will be plenty of other information to focus on.
Soybean acres are estimated at 88.3 million, up 1% from last year. This is down from March’s estimate of 90.955 million and below the pre-report trade average of 90.446 million.
“U.S. Farm Report” Host Tyne Morgan will join USDA’s Seth Meyer to discuss 2021 crop and acreage expectations.
USDA adjusted corn ending stocks lower in its April WASDE report, based on increased exports and ethanol, but Alan Brugler of Brugler Marketing says now it’s just a matter of if the record commitments can ship.
An exclusive interview with the NASS Chief of Crops about Farm Bureau’s recommendations to improve transparency and accuracy of NASS reporting.
USDA’S final crop production report of the year made some historic adjustments, including tighter soybean stocks. As a result, soybeans shot 60 cents higher in a matter of minutes, and corn traded up the limit.
Watch analysis of Tuesday’s USDA reports with AgriTalk’s Chip Flory, USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer and others.