Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says $243 was the line in the sand for the June live cattle or funds would liquidate and it held after Brooke Rollins canceled her trip to Arizona which alleviated fears of a border reopening.
Following a major stakeholder meeting, USDA is boosting survey sample sizes and moving data-focused offices out of D.C. to rebuild farmer trust and improve the accuracy of its agricultural reports.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says the HRW wheat market was adding weather premium with forecasts continuing to look hot and dry for the Southern Plains.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, says wheat is holding weather premium with the deteriorating crop conditions but longer term higher energy prices could spark some inflationary buying in grains.
The soybean market looked like it was ready to breakout but Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing says they hit chart resistance and saw profit taking.
However, Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says the corn and soybean markets are at a crossroads in the new crop contracts and need a catalyst to get above resistance.
Soybeans and multi-year highs in the soybean oil market led the grain complex higher on Tuesday according to Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing.
Soybeans saw early gains Tuesday with help from a rally in both bean oil and soybean meal and that is supporting corn says Hillari Mason with Pro Farmer. However, several other factors were supporting early strength.
Alan Brugler with A&N Economics says corn got some support from higher crude oil and soft red winter wheat plus other demand fundamentals.
Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle futures held key support on Friday and are higher Monday but can the market retest the record highs?
Grains initially saw pressure in tandem with the plunge in the energy markets on Friday on optimism about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz but ended well off session lows says Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle plunged late week after contract highs due to fears of the border reopening to Mexican imports.
Wheat futures rallied on Thursday adding weather premium with expanding drought and a mostly dry forecast for the Western third of the Plains says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says funds are buying and covering short positions due to expanded drought in hard red winter wheat country on Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor and the lower crop conditions.
Rich Nelson with Allendale says while he doesn’t agree with it, the corn market was seeing some weather premium added on concerns about planting delays which takes away the argument for record acreage.
Brian Grete with CommStock Investments says soybeans were higher Wednesday on optimism about the mid-May meeting with China and corn was following.
According to Tommy Grisafi of Nesvick Trading money flow the last two sessions in the outside markets had a huge impact on ag markets.
Jon Scheve with Scheve Grain thinks the grain markets have transitioned over to trading more of its own fundamentals.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says the grains and energy sector started higher on war headlines but peaked out quickly by mid session acting like it wasn’t that concerned about the war.
Live cattle futures made new and all-time contract highs on Friday with the April contract closing above $250.
Here’s an illustration of price discovery for soybeans that serves as a prime example of the efficiency of our price discovery system, as seen in the past 25 years of market history.
Corn futures scored a bearish lower weekly close for a second week and are now around 30 cents off the highs the market hit during the Iran war.
Don Roose with U.S. Commodities say soybeans followed meal and hold a premium on hopes of China business.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market has been impressive and resilient.
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says, “USDA did rearrange some of the soybean demand estimates with crush raised 35 million bu. while exports were lowered the same amount.”
Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says markets were removing war premium but the key is will the ceasefire stick and does the Strait of Hormuz get reopened?
Corn, wheat and crude oil were lower after a possible two week cease fire between the U.S. and Iran. says Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag.
The commodity wide selling pressure was tied to risk aversion and uncertainty regarding the escalation of the Iran War according to Mark Knight with Farmers Keeper Financial.
Corn and soybeans ended slightly higher with a push from slightly higher crude oil and swirling Iran war headlines according to Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the live cattle futures are chasing sharply higher cash trade from last week.