Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Rich Nelson of Allendale says grains started lower and are quietly mixed awaiting tariff news and the big USDA reports at the end of the month. Allendale’s annual acreage survey confirms higher corn acres at the expense of soybeans.
Dan Basse, Ag Resource Company, says the February highs may be the highs for the year in corn and soybeans with the headwinds he sees ahead.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says wheat led the price rally and pulled up corn as traders were putting in weather premium and funds covered short positions. Feeder cattle made all-time highs.
EPA announced 31 moves to repeal environmental protections.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle and hogs both saw gap higher openings and are seeing triple digit gains with help from the cash. Corn is higher following wheat, while soybeans lag.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says while he is short term bearish on corn his longer-term outlook is still bullish.
USDA is nearing its March 21 deadline to open applications for $10 billion in economic assistance approved by Congress in December.
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities says corn and wheat end lower with soybeans higher Friday evening up positions ahead of the weekend.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are awaiting cash direction with producers and feedlots holding out for higher money. Grains are mixed after a higher close on Thursday.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says grain markets rebounded Thursday on technical buying after holding and bouncing off support areas. Strong export demand was also positive.
Mark Knight, Farmers Keeper Financial, says grains are seeing a technical bounce off support areas wtih strong weekly exports.
The Meat Institute highlighted concerns over unfair trade practices that hinder industry growth.
Alan Brugler with A&N Economics, LLC. says the tariff escalation once again weighed on the grain markets with the EU putting retaliatory tariffs on U.S. grains and threats that Canada would put levies on U.S. ethanol imports.
Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Commodity Brokerage, says grains are seeing pressure on new tariff concerns with the EU as they announce retaliatory measures on ag products.
A bipartisan group of senators urged USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on Monday to speed up the distribution of $20 billion in disaster relief.
John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says grain and livestock both saw risk off selling tied to trade uncertainty, bearish outside markets and recessionary fears.
Brian Splitt, AgMarket.Net thinks USDA is just waiting to get through the quarterly stock report and the planting intentions to make revisions on demand for corn and soybeans.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says corn is extending gains for a 5th session still in recovery mode after the panic liquidation tied to tariffs. Soybeans rebounded early.
Dr. Vince Malanga, President of LaSalle Economics, says that fortunately, the budget resolution passed the House by the narrowest of margins. However, he notes the Senate version is significantly different.
Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge, says soybeans and the products saw significant pressure tied to risk off selling and South American harvest pressure, while the rest of the markets were able to shake that off.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle see buying interest after strong cash late last week. Corn tries to hold gains with soybeans seeing South American harvest pressure and concern about China’s 10% tariffs on U.S. soybeans.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says despite the volatility tied to tariffs, the corn and soybean markets closed only slightly lower for the week and Gulke was impressed at the reset off the lows that produced a hook reversal on the charts.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says it was roller coaster week in both grain and livestock futures due to on again, off again tariff talk. Are calmer waters ahead?
Price action and outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Varilek says black swan events like the Black Sea war that broke in May of 2022 lead to highly volatile markets but in that case the news and uncertainty became priced in over time.
Allison Thompson of The Money Farm says grains markets extended gains for a second day with talk of ag exemptions and then another 30 day extension on tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
This marked the 15th month of the past 16 in which agricultural trade posted a deficit.
Russia’s 2024-25 wheat exports are expected total 40.5 MMT.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says the grain markets made new lows for the move on fund liquidation and technical selling pressure tied to trade retaliation by Canada, Mexico and China.
USDA reported corn-for-ethanol use totaled 457.4 million bu. during January.