Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says part of the pressure in soybeans was technical selling but the market is also starting to trade the big crop potential in South America.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says the $10,80 level has been strong support in soybeans and held with the help of more daily export sales.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says early pressure in soybeans came from follow through selling and more confusion on China’s purchase commitments. However, soybeans bounced off of strong technical support at the days lows.
Brian Grete with Commstock Investments says he was a bit surprised by how aggressive USDA was in raising corn exports to 3.2 billion bu. which is a record.
Alan Brugler with A&N Economics, Inc. says the soybean market continues to be plagued by uncertainty over China’s soybean purchase commitments and a close below $11 projects lower prices.
Brad Kooima says both live and feeder cattle futures markets struggled Monday as the huge recovery off the lows put contracts up into 50% retracement levels.
Soybean futures ended sharply lower on Friday, with the January contract down 33¢ for the week. Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says the poor close is tied to mixed messages about a signed soybean agreement with China and sales progress.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says Thursday saw the volume of live sale prices at $220, up $10 from last week but even some $222 developed in Iowa.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading says bull markets need to be fed daily and so corn and soybeans would need a combination of factors to converge to retest the November highs.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says grains took the path of least resistance on Wednesday trading lower with a lack of fresh bullish news.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says the market was adding some geopolitical risk premium with tensions rising in the Black Sea region.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says so far its estimated China purchased 3 MMT but in order for China to keep on pace it would need to buy over 2 MMT a week through the end of 2025.
The entire grain complex saw profit taking Monday after hitting chart resistance according to Allison Thompson with The Money Farm.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says he would be more confident about the lows holding in the cattle futures if three factors would turn positive.
The question now is was this just a correction of the oversold status in the cattle markets? While a higher weekly close is positive, Varilek says recoveries often come in three day waves.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says grains staged a surprise rally on news of China soybean buys but farmer selling pressure also subsided ahead of first notice day on Friday.
Hillari Mason with Pro Farmer says farmers had to roll or sell December futures or basis fixed contracts before Wednesday or risk delivery and so most of the commercial positioning is done which will take pressure off the market.
Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics says the grain complex also saw some buying interest on the lower U.S. dollar index, which reacted to U.S. economic data.
Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says the weakness in the grain markets last week and to start this week was tied to liquidation and pricing of basis fixed contracts against December futures before the delivery period starts. Once that’s out of the way what is the next move?
The announcement to close the Lexington, Neb., plant and transition to one shift in Amarillo shocked the beef industry. While local impacts will be significant, analysts urge producers to remain calm as the market fundamentals steady following the reaction.
Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing says the soybean market is tired of rhetoric and wants to see results in the form of sales to China.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle were limit down early Monday on news that Tyson Foods will be closing its Lexington, Neb. beef processing plant on Jan. 20 and the Amarillo, Texas plant will go down to one shift.
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says the soybean market has corrected its overbought status with the profit taking by the funds so the selling pressure may be over.
The company will end operations in early 2026 in the plant that employs nearly 3,200 people and can slaughter almost 5,000 cattle a day and convert its Amarillo, Texas, beef facility to a single, full-capacity shift.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the market had been anticipating the tariffs to be lowered on Brazil beef for several days and it was part of the recent selloff in cattle. “So I think a lot of this was already penciled into prices.” he explains.
Tight supplies and strong demand have pushed beef prices and producer profitability to historic highs. After peaking in 2025, CattleFax analyst Kevin Good forecasts prices will see a modest correction while fundamentals remain strong.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says soybeans continue to sell off though as this business has already been priced into the market with the nearly $1.50 rally off the lows.
Grains futures saw sharp losses on Wednesday on profit taking according to Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. However, there were several other factors at play.
Strong demand supports beef prices amid economic volatility, but herd investment and growth slows as producers grapple with increasing uncertainty due to political noise.
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says the additional six cargoes of soybeans sold to China were part of the rumored business earlier in the week and have already been priced into the market.