Corn
Corn and wheat futures were lower early Wednesday seeing some profit taking after a higher close Tuesday says Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says the market was adding some geopolitical risk premium with tensions rising in the Black Sea region.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says so far its estimated China purchased 3 MMT but in order for China to keep on pace it would need to buy over 2 MMT a week through the end of 2025.
Several years of low commodity prices, high input costs and thin margins have taken a toll on soil stewardship in some parts of the country. As a result, farmers need to use caution and do their homework before renting ground that’s coming available in their area for 2026.
The entire grain complex saw profit taking Monday after hitting chart resistance according to Allison Thompson with The Money Farm.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says he would be more confident about the lows holding in the cattle futures if three factors would turn positive.
In many areas of the Corn Belt, farmers experienced 10-to-50-bu.-per-acre yield losses from disease pressure this year, says Ken Ferrie. In a period of tight margins, timely treatment decisions were more crucial than usual.
The question now is was this just a correction of the oversold status in the cattle markets? While a higher weekly close is positive, Varilek says recoveries often come in three day waves.
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says grains staged a surprise rally on news of China soybean buys but farmer selling pressure also subsided ahead of first notice day on Friday.
Hillari Mason with Pro Farmer says farmers had to roll or sell December futures or basis fixed contracts before Wednesday or risk delivery and so most of the commercial positioning is done which will take pressure off the market.
Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics says the grain complex also saw some buying interest on the lower U.S. dollar index, which reacted to U.S. economic data.
Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says the weakness in the grain markets last week and to start this week was tied to liquidation and pricing of basis fixed contracts against December futures before the delivery period starts. Once that’s out of the way what is the next move?
Because every growing season is unique, agronomists are encouraging corn growers to make a management plan for the “driver diseases” they’re most likely to encounter in fields next year.
Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing says the soybean market is tired of rhetoric and wants to see results in the form of sales to China.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle were limit down early Monday on news that Tyson Foods will be closing its Lexington, Neb. beef processing plant on Jan. 20 and the Amarillo, Texas plant will go down to one shift.
Gulke says after a reversal, he’s watching short-term technical indicators to determine if the corn market is going to continue to go lower.“
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says the soybean market has corrected its overbought status with the profit taking by the funds so the selling pressure may be over.
Susan Olson, of Action Intel, analyzes barge movement and logistics and says the past few weeks show a divergence in how grain is getting to export markets.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the market had been anticipating the tariffs to be lowered on Brazil beef for several days and it was part of the recent selloff in cattle. “So I think a lot of this was already penciled into prices.” he explains.
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says soybeans continue to sell off though as this business has already been priced into the market with the nearly $1.50 rally off the lows.
Grains futures saw sharp losses on Wednesday on profit taking according to Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. However, there were several other factors at play.
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says the additional six cargoes of soybeans sold to China were part of the rumored business earlier in the week and have already been priced into the market.
Mike Minor says the agency reported 29 million bushels of soybean purchases Tuesday morning which brings China’s total to from 8% to 12% of the total 12 MMT commitments they’ve made.
Randy Martinson says confirmation of 29 million bushels of soybeans sold to China is already priced into the market after the big rally to 17-month highs in soybeans. So, the market is seeing a traditional “buy to rumor sell the fact” reaction.
Soybean futures closed nearly $.33 higher on the January contract. Craig Turner with StoneX said there was unconfirmed market talk of multiple cargoes of soybeans being sold to China through the Pacific Northwest.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the fear of Brazilian beef tariffs being lowered was part of the selloff in the cattle futures last week. However, Brazil tariffs are still at 66.4% so he says it was already priced into the market.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says soybeans had rallied into the report as the market priced in additional China demand. So, he wasn’t surprised with the reaction,
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX says USDA only lowered national corn yield .7 bushels per acre to 186 which was a disappointment for the bulls.
The biggest surprise came from the agency cutting corn yield less than a bushel and loweing soybean exports by 50 million bushels.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the funds continue to liquidate their long positions on the fear of the Mexican border reopening but lower fed cash is also a negative.