Market Analysis
Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing says corn was slightly higher with tighter ending stocks, while soybeans fell on the rumor of lower RVO levels.
Craig Turner with StoneX says the markets were initially charged by news the U.S. and China had reached a trade framework. However, the deal was lacking in detail just like so many of the trade deals touted by the administration.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says the grain market is getting some support from news a framework has been worked out between the U.S. and China to at least call a truce on tariffs and remove restrictions on rare earth mineral imports.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says the corn market saw a technical bounce and even some bull spreading on Tuesday, but most of it was tied to short covering. While cattle reacted to ICE raids at Omaha, NE meat plants.
Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company, says old crop corn made another new low for the move overnight with national crop ratings improving by 3% to 71% good to excellent. The corn complex continues to face headwinds from weather, with no major threats on the horizon.
Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities says Monday’s action in the grain markets was disappointing as the funds came back into sell in the grain complex.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash cattle trade shattered previous records last week and the futures are continuing to make new all-time highs on Monday in both live and feeder cattle futures.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the gains were impressive considering the ongoing uncertainty regarding weather, trade and the geopolitical environment.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says grains also saw mostly higher weekly closes mostly as a result of technical buying.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures gapped higher on the opening Friday and made all-time highs once again. Futures are still chasing record cash.
Jeff Hoogendoorn, with Professional Ag Marketing, says hogs ended mixed Wednesday, consolidating after the recent rally driven by higher cash and cutouts. While soybeans rallied after the Trump/Xi call.
Mark Knight with Farmers Keeper Financial says grains opened higher on news of a call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi then traded on both sides of steady.
Tommy Grisafi of Nesvick Trading says it was a risk on day in the grains as they attempted to add weather premium on the hot, dry extended forecasts. “I feel like these markets have very little if any weather premium.”
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says corn and soybeans finally bounced Tuesday after closing lower for several days. He says both markets were adding risk premium and scored reversals.
Brian Grete, Pro Farmer Editor, says soybeans roll over and make new lows for the move on China U.S. trade tensions, which weighed on corn.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle rally chasing record cash with the basis historically wide.
The grain markets were lower for the week, except for hard red spring wheat. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says he thinks the pressure was largely in response to this week’s surprising trade developments.
Market outlook broken down into the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm, says it was a lower week in the grains on a combination of technical selling, weather and trade uncertainty.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are chasing exploding cash early Friday, with more record high prices paid in all areas. Corn and soybeans continue to be weak with mostly favorable weather.
Kent Beadle of Paradigm Futures says, unlike the financial markets, the ag futures did not see the positive reaction to the ITC court ruling declaring the “Independence Day” tariffs as illegal.
Darin Newsom, Barchart, says the financial markets have reacted positively to the International Trade Commission’s court ruling against the Trump tariffs, declaring them unlawful. However, the ag markets are disregarding the news.
Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says corn and soybeans saw heavy technical or fund selling pressure on Wednesday, some of it in the grains was tied to weather.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says wheat is seeing some strength from lower crop conditions,.
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist with StoneX, says corn and wheat saw pressure from weather, largely disregarding the positive news of EU tariff delays.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are seeing some early weakness despite last week’s record cash and neutral USDA Cattle on Feed Report compared to expectations. Corn is down with wheat and mostly favorable weather.
After turning bearish last week, Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says he watched the markets all rally without a real fundamental reason for the move.
Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions, says the grain markets saw risk off selling tied to President Trump’s threat of 50% tariffs on the EU on June 1.
CFTC says expanding trading hours would ensure markets remain vibrant, while commercial hedgers and commodity brokers who work with farmers say it will fuel volatility and won’t make the markets stronger.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says ag markets are seeing red with the threat of 50% tariffs on all EU imports.