Markets - General
Brazil is seeing a sudden shift in weather with heavy rains now forecasted over the next two weeks. While it will bring relief to drought areas, it could cause harvest delays and issues planting the safrinha corn crop.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says there are no signs of a low yet in the soybean and corn markets, but Chicago wheat may have confirmed a bottom and will be the leader of the three wheat classes.
Soybean prices continued to slide this week on news that a wetter weather pattern is blanketing Brazil. The rains are giving the crops a much-needed drink after battling severe drought conditions at the end of 2023.
Jon Scheve discusses how to capture market carry in the market and how he made 37 cents of profit.
Jon Scheve discusses what variables in South America will contribute to price fluctuations for the next month.
Prices are holding within trading ranges due to the lack of farmer selling and Brazil production concerns.
Jon Scheve discusses how he sold corn calls to increase profits for his farm.
With rapidly changing market conditions, Jerry Gulke says it pays to look at historical precedents.
The world stocks to use ratios were not raised in the December WASDE, which was a victory for the market.
Welcome to a $9 million orgy of crop insurance fraud by an unassuming farm couple.
After Kevin Whitney’s iPhone fell into 220,000 bushels of grain, the device made a 20,000-mile roundtrip across the globe before returning to its stunned owner.
AgResource Company forecasts 80% of the soybean crop is planted as of today, but for some farmers it’s been a year of replant for both corn and soybeans.
For hedgers, such as Jon Scheve, a farmer who produces the commodity with a futures sale, margin calls are not bad. Here’s how to use margin calls for risk management and to increase profits.
Jon Scheve likes to have full control of his grain sales. The minor cost to carry his own hedge account is almost always offset with better basis values and improved negotiating power.
On soybeans, Jerry Gulke says the 25 million bushel increase in carryout can easily be wiped out with the current weather issues potential cuts to South American production, plus increased export demand.
![2023 November-WASDE - Production - AgWeb[83].jpg](https://assets.farmjournal.com/dims4/default/c15665d/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1200x802+0+29/resize/250x167!/format/webp/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffj-corp-pub.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Fs3fs-public%2F2023-11%2F2023%20November-WASDE%20-%20Production%20-%20AgWeb%5B83%5D.jpg)
USDA upped its corn yield estimate by nearly 2 bu. to a 174.9 bu. per acre national yield. The agency also increased its demand estimate, which softened the potential blow of such a big jump in production.
The strong close in soybeans reflects concerns about South American weather. If South American production drops 100 million bushels that makes U.S. ending stocks at 220 million bushels look tight, says Jerry Gulke.
Whether you’re in the middle of harvest, or already wrapped up, there are five common grain marketing mistakes farmers often make. University of Minnesota’s Ed Usset says these mistakes happen throughout the year.
Jon Scheve discusses why corn prices might continue to go down for the next few months while soybean prices could have upside potential.
Corn and soybean prices seem stuck. So, what catalyst could it take to move commodity prices higher? There are a few, but analysts say the reality is there’s simply no story at the moment.
This week’s price action in soybeans and soybean meal has many wondering if a South American weather market is starting early. Even China is taking notice.
The real question is: Should farmers wait for a more significant rally? Jerry Gulke says look at the carry in the market because it narrowed this week and determine if you can afford to pay commercial storage.
Weather in Brazil is as big of a market mover as forecasts in the U.S. Why has Brazil grown so aggressively? One economist recently spent six months in Brazil and says a combination of factors is aiding their growth.
Soybean demand makes the market more receptive to a postharvest rally if production trends lower into January. Corn exports are behind last year’s pace, and importers are turning to Brazil’s corn.
As pork producers’ potential profits continue to erode this year, some economists say 2023 could be financially worse than 1998, which is unearthing concerns about contraction, restructuring and vertical integration.
Jerry Gulke says the Middle East conflict bears watching and advises farmers to have their energy and fertilizer supplies in hand should the event turn into another war.
The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor show economists expect USDA to make additional cuts to its yield estimates, but one economist thinks weather worries in South America could be an even bigger story than U.S. yields.
Should farmers store and try to capture the carry and more importantly will that carry be there in the future when it’s time for them to deliver? Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, is skeptical.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the most significant part of the report was the breakdown of who is holding the grain.
As Congress drew closer to a government shutdown, the news pressured commodity prices. The drop in commodity prices happened despite what some viewed as a fairly bullish September Grains Stocks report for corn.