Markets - General
If Congress doesn’t pass stopgap funding, crop production and progress reports will probably stall. That won’t bode well for markets. “Usually it means that we’ve got some selling pressure ahead,” says one analyst.
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Ag economists’ view on the ag economy is starting to erode. The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows lower commodity prices, concerns about demand and a negative outlook for China’s economy.
The corn market is turning stronger, says Jerry Gulke, while wheat was the first to reset and proceed like everything is normal, even though that’s not the case. When it comes to soybeans, there’s bad news and good news.
On the heels of the September WASDE report, Jerry Gulke details 9 points to help you understand and navigate the troubled waters ahead.
Both Dan Basse and Chip Nellinger say considering how dry it’s been, crop yields could be falling, and USDA may be forced to make more cuts to the national yield forecasts in upcoming reports.
There are just over two weeks for Congress to pass 12 spending bills to avoid a total government shutdown. If time runs out, one analyst says that could mean no USDA report in October and no yield cuts, which are likely.
Corn and Soybean Markets Lower for the Week Awaiting Confirmation of Lower Yields in September WASDE
Jerry Gulke thinks the corn and soybean crops are getting smaller, and there’s a good chance for a bullish supply shock in the September WASDE report.
Analysts think the recent hot and dry weather could have a detrimental effect on the potential production picture in the U.S., but even with issues, the price story is different for corn than it is for soybeans.
Even with red flags with demand and the economy, the August Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows economists continue to be impressed with the staying power of the U.S. ag economy, as well as the U.S. economy as a whole.
Jerry Gulke thinks USDA will have to lower yields in its next report. He also says he hasn’t seen a late-season weather market like this since 1988.
Whether you have a low-cost operation, a highly leveraged operation or are somewhere in between, it’s a good idea to run an ROI analysis to understand just how good or bad marketing opportunities are at any time.
As scouts set out on the the 2023 Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Iowa will be closely watched as it’s the only state where Crop Tour covers all the state’s counties. Brian Grete says Iowa has a lot of question marks this year.
Row crops post higher weekly closes and could be confirming a short-term low as the market continues to determine yield.
As the Midwest sets to bake in the coming days, the Pro Farmer Crop Tour will be closely followed, especially since traders and analysts are watching to see how soybeans stand up to the heat.
Drought is impacting operations along the Panama Canal, one of the largest shipping channels in the world, with restrictions now placed on both the number of ships, as well as the amount of cargo they can carry.
Tyson Foods’ decision to shutter four poultry processing plants, combined with Smithfield Foods announcing the closure 35 Missouri pig farmers, are strong signals that rapid consolidation is already underway.
Jon Scheve discusses the likelihood of USDA changing the average corn yield in Friday’s WASDE report based on crop condition observations, the drought monitor, high-tech tools and social media.
Selling a crop that’s not yet in the ground can be intimidating. But if you don’t get a head start on pricing your crops, you might miss good marketing opportunities.
On March 29, USDA will release its annual Prospective Plantings report. How will acres shake out this year?
The grain markets had several drivers this week, including daily reports from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, more big purchases from China and continued uncertainty of the crop damage in Iowa.
The losses the past seven to 10 days have cost farmers dearly, says Jerry Gulke. When fundamentals don’t influence prices the way we’ve come to expect, he says it’s time to look behind the scenes.
So often with big USDA reports, it’s not so much what the numbers say, but how the markets react to close out the week.
Sixty-five percent of farmers surveyed in July expect interest rates to climb in the next 12 months. On a positive note, 7 out of 10 said they expect farmland cash rental rates to remain roughly the same for 2024.
Now is the time to be aggressive — not in marketing, financial decisions or crop mix shifts — but in risk management.
2021 has rolled out the red carpet for grain producers. March corn prices were up 12.5¢ and March soybean prices were up 66.25¢ for the week ending Jan. 8.
The grain markets continue their steady march upward. March corn prices were up 34.25¢ and March soybean prices were up 41.75¢ for the week.
While 2020 may be one from the history books, be sure to note its gleanings in terms of insights for being a better marketer in the years ahead.
This year should not be about marketing at breakeven, but about a targeted point of profitability. Once you hit that point, make incremental sales as the market moves higher.
The grain markets took a hit this week. March corn prices were down 29.25¢ and March soybean prices were down $1.05 for the week ending Jan. 22.
After a rough week last week, grain prices have rebounded. March corn prices were up 46.75¢ and March soybean prices were up 56¢ for the week ending Jan. 29. March wheat prices were up 28¢.