USDA Reports
USDA’s May WASDE report sent corn and soybean prices higher, it also caused wheat to soar. However, one analyst questions why the trade viewed the latest report as so bullish.
Corn and soybeans have been under pressure the last few sessions, bringing prices back near some pivotal price points ahead of today’s WASDE report.
Lance Honig, acting director of the NASS methodology division, says budget constraints led to the agency’s decision. The County Estimates data was used over the years, in part, to determine federal farm program payments.
USDA’s April WASDE report showed larger wheat and soybean ending stocks, but smaller ending stocks for corn. More surprising, still, was the lack of changes to South America’s crop estimates.
Jon Scheve discusses highlights from the USDA report and trends of where prices have gone after this report in past years.
Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says even though the quarterly stocks number for corn came in below the trade guess, he thinks it is more bullish than it looks on the surface due to hidden corn disappearance.
The March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found nearly 80% of those surveyed say soybeans pencils better than corn this year, but economists still increased their corn acreage projections slightly in the latest survey.
With the exception of Chicago wheat, grain markets scored higher weekly closes and ended above the 20-day moving average for the first time in weeks, according to Darren Frye, Water Street Solutions.
USDA cut its estimate for Brazil’s soybean production by 1 MMT in the March WASDE report, which was less than what the trade expected. USDA didn’t make any cuts to Brazil’s corn.
Until USDA’s May WASDE report rolls around, these acreage, yield, supply and ending stock figures are the talk of the town.
USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum in Washington, D.C., this past week confirmed growing stocks in 2024/2025. Analysts say without a sudden supply disruption, the commodity price outlook remains grim.
Oklahoma State’s Derrell Peel points out with the U.S. beef cow herd the smallest since 1961 and the all cattle inventory the lowest since 1951, it’s setting the cattle market up for higher highs.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, considers the bounce off the lows a victory: “This was a win, even though we had markets down a little bit for the week.”
What caused the price pressure again this week? Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and John Payne of hEDGEpoint Global join U.S. Farm Report to discuss what the market is watching.
March corn hit a new contract low of $4.41 on Friday. Will corn see more pressure trying to price in extra bushels? March soybeans also hit a low of $12.06. Will $12 support hold without a drop in Brazil production?
With larger-than-expected yield revisions to both corn and soybeans, it leaves one burning question: which states grew such big yields in 2023? USDA NASS released maps and charts to help answer that.
USDA’s final look at crop production for 2023 caught the commodity markets by surprise. The agency increased the final yield estimates for both corn and soybeans, and as a result, prices plummeted on Friday.
Despite weather concerns sprouting in Brazil, USDA didn’t make any major adjustments to the South American crop in Friday’s reports. Increased demand from China and Mexico prompted USDA to trim U.S. ending stocks.
![2023 November-WASDE - Production - AgWeb[83].jpg](https://assets.farmjournal.com/dims4/default/c15665d/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1200x802+0+29/resize/250x167!/format/webp/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffj-corp-pub.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Fs3fs-public%2F2023-11%2F2023%20November-WASDE%20-%20Production%20-%20AgWeb%5B83%5D.jpg)
USDA upped its corn yield estimate by nearly 2 bu. to a 174.9 bu. per acre national yield. The agency also increased its demand estimate, which softened the potential blow of such a big jump in production.
Jon Scheve discusses why corn may trade in a sideways range through harvest. However, beans might have more opportunity.
Even though USDA slightly adjusted yields lower in the October report, the agency also cut demand, which one extension agribusiness specialist says indicates there may not be much motivation for prices to move much.
The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor show economists expect USDA to make additional cuts to its yield estimates, but one economist thinks weather worries in South America could be an even bigger story than U.S. yields.
There are just over two weeks for Congress to pass 12 spending bills to avoid a total government shutdown. If time runs out, one analyst says that could mean no USDA report in October and no yield cuts, which are likely.
One idea that has gained traction is USDA surveys may not be as accurate as current technology, especially satellite imagery, especially since the number of satellites has ballooned and the price has dropped.
USDA’s first farmer survey-based yield estimate offered few surprises, but analysts warn the estimates might already be out of date due to rain that fell after Aug. 1. USDA also made more cuts to demand.
Jon Scheve discusses the likelihood of USDA changing the average corn yield in Friday’s WASDE report based on crop condition observations, the drought monitor, high-tech tools and social media.
On March 29, USDA will release its annual Prospective Plantings report. How will acres shake out this year?
Arlan Suderman, StoneX Group, and DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, debate USDA’s WASDE numbers.
After the June report, traders prepared for a “new” trading environment with “burdensome” corn supplies and “pipeline” soybean supplies. Then came the anticlimactic July report.
The next opportunity for USDA to adjust its corn yield forecast is next week during the July WASDE report. Currently, USDA has penciled in a 181.5 bu. per acre national yield, but analysts think it may be too optimistic.