Wheat
In addition to major tax provisions, the bill enhances the current safety net, providing $66 billion in new spending for farm programs.
That percentage doesn’t tell the complete story, however. While farmers in the West and southeast Texas have endured weeks of dry conditions that’s not been the case in the central Corn Belt where growing conditions have been excellent.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says it was a combination of short covering and technical buying heading into a long holiday weekend but the announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam also provided a spark.
Allison Thompson withThe Money Farm says some of recovery in corn is a technical bounce off of new contract lows in both old and new crop contracts on Tuesday. She thinks the corn market has also been getting ahead of itself and is too bearish on yield.
Wheat streak mosaic virus decimated some fields this season, say K-State Extension specialists. The problem is also showing up and expanding in other key wheat-producing states. What farmers do this fall will determine whether the disease is reined in or takes off again next season.
John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says corn made new contract lows again as funds continue to sell with no major weather threat to the crop and improved crop ratings. But how low will prices go?
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures had a gap lower opening this morning on news from USDA of a phased re-opening of the border to Mexican cattle starting July 7.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, says the June 30 reports have traditionally produced some fireworks, especially as they coincide with the end of the month and quarter which also triggers some portfolio re-balancing by the funds, but that didn’t happen Monday.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net says, the corn market is breathing a sigh of relief as some whisper numbers on acreage were substantially larger than the March intentions.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, chalks the recovery up to short covering heading into the weekend and position squaring ahead of Monday’s USDA reports.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says some in the market attributed the recovery to short covering but he thinks a some significant trade developments also played a role, as well as the upcoming USDA reports.
Historically, the corn market has been well over $5 with ending stocks this tight, says Darren Frye with Water Street Advisory, Inc. Will higher-than-expected corn inventory show up in USDA’s Quarterly Stocks Report?
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are holding together despite lower cash trade, while grains are finally seeing a bounce in reaction to a China deal on rare earths.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says the funds continue to sell in the grain markets, and both old and new crop corn hit new contract lows Thursday before bouncing off those levels. So, how much more downside risk is there?
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the grain markets have seen massive fund selling this week pushing corn to new contract lows but it has been spurred by a number of bearish factors.
Hear from the likes of AGCO, Claas, John Deere and others about what each farm equipment manufacturer is planning to invest in its U.S. manufacturing footprint.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says grains failed to extend gains on Friday hitting chart resistance, but there was another big factor.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grains are seeing a quiet session on Friday with thin post-holiday trade. However, at least wheat is failing to extend the big gains seen on Wednesday.
Rich Nelson with Allendale says wheat led the charge higher in the grains inserting war and weather premium but also seeing some short covering. Cattle and hogs recovered from Tuesday’s collapse.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are trying to recover after tanking Tuesday due to geopolitical and war concerns and the lower day in the stock market.
Mike Minor of Professional Ag Marketing says grains saw technical buying on Tuesday while livestock fell with the financial markets on the conflict between Iran and Israel and a flip flop on ICE raids in packing plants.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, says grains are slightly higher Tuesday morning. While outside markets are reacting to the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Tomm Pftizenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage says soybeans saw some follow through buying on Monday but it was somewhat disappointing considering the limit up move in soybean oil.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures started the day higher in recovery mode after a poor technical close on Friday and a bearish reversal lower for the week. Soybeans continue to rally on the heels of the surge in bean oil on EPA’s surprise biofuels news.
Soybeans were up sharply on Friday with soybean oil locked limit up on all of the contracts. Alan Brugler, A&N Economics, says it was in reaction to the EPA’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations, which were especially bullish for biomass based diesel.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are seeing risk off selling tied to the news overnight of escalating war between Iran and Israel which has the financial markets sharply lower. Bean oil is limit up on news of higher blending levels for biomass based diesel.
Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing says corn was slightly higher with tighter ending stocks, while soybeans fell on the rumor of lower RVO levels.
USDA lowered old crop corn ending stocks 50 million bushels, but Brian Splitt, AgMarket.Net, says the market doesn’t feel like it’s trading a 1.365 billion bushel carryout nor do the July/December spreads.
Craig Turner with StoneX says the markets were initially charged by news the U.S. and China had reached a trade framework. However, the deal was lacking in detail just like so many of the trade deals touted by the administration.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says the grain market is getting some support from news a framework has been worked out between the U.S. and China to at least call a truce on tariffs and remove restrictions on rare earth mineral imports.