Global Economy
As federal policy decisions tend to heavily impact rural industries, the outcome of the 2024 election promises to significantly shape the rural economy in the year ahead. CoBank’s annual report outlines what to expect.
There is evidence the supply-side of the 2024/25 balance sheets for corn and soybeans is still a moving target, which means there’s potential for more market volatility in the next six weeks. On the demand side, questions remain as well.
A Virginia Tech report finds global agricultural productivity growth has slowed from 1.9% to 0.7% annually.
USDA forecasts agricultural exports at $173.5 billion and imports at a record $204 billion for a projected record trade deficit of $30.5 billion.
The effects are already visible, with declining French barley exports to China and the U.S. struggling to sell corn for the new season.
Agricultural imports are expected to reach a record $212 billion, up $8 billion from FY 2024. This increase is largely due to rising imports of horticultural products, sugar and tropical products.
U.S. corn prices hit a four-year low as the prospect for record corn and soybean crops takes shape in the field. The eroding outlook also appeared in the August Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor.
After the three-year hiatus of down markets, grains have turned positive at least in the short-term, which is the first element of turning long-term positive.
Just this week, China’s largest real estate firm was told it must liquidate after trying to restructure for two years. Some experts say the country is teetering on a recession.
Pay attention to the national corn yield, the number of planted corn acres and Brazil’s corn and soybean crops.