Market Analysis
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cash cattle trade was record high again last week with $223 live paid in much of the North and even a few $224 trades to a regional. Grains are mostly lower.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says there was risk on buying across the commodity and financial markets due to more positive trade news and economic headlines.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says soybeans see a bounce Thursday after four down days on technical buying and with help from soybean oil.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says corn and wheat futures are seeing some technical buying with first notice day and end of month positioning out of the way.
Craig Turner, grain and oilseed analyst with StoneX, says corn and wheat saw corrective buying as it was end of the month and past first notice day for May futures.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says corn and wheat are seeing end of the month short covering and some pressure taken off now that First Notice Day is in the rear view mirror.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says a combination of bearish factors combined to pressure the grain markets Tuesday including the fast planting pace.
John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says corn and soybeans see pressure from the fast planting progress and an open weather forecast next week, plus first notice day positioning.
Alan Brugler, A&N Economics, says wheat and corn ended lower but soybeans rebounded after early pressure. Cattle made more contract highs.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains are seeing pressure on weather. However, both live and feeder cattle futures are making new contract and all-time highs on last week’s record cash.
Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says grains had a quiet day as they were also consolidating around strike prices as it was May option expiration.
Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst with Barchart, Inc., tries to explain the higher day in the grains, especially soybeans, with the bearish Chinese trade news. So, what drove the rally?
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says soybeans rallied with the tailwind of more talk of Chinese tensions easing and May closed above key 200-day moving average resistance.
Allison Thompson, The Money Farm, says soybeans are seeing follow through buying on Wednesday with the de-escalation of the China trade war.
Dan Basse, president of Ag Resource Company in Chicago, says corn was pressured by the fast planting pace of 12% nationally and a slightly more open forecast for the next week or so.
Mark Knight, Farmer’s Keeper Financial, says corn and wheat are under pressure from fast corn planting pace and rains in the forecast for hard red winter wheat country. Soybeans bounced off support, but need to take out technical resistance to keep the momentum going.
Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company, says grain and cattle markets saw selling Monday in tandem with the collapse in outside markets.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains lose early strength running into chart resistance. While cattle also started higher with the sharply higher cash trade Thursday but faded.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live and feeder cattle futures closed strong on Thursday and for the week, pushed by cash. While new crop corn and soybeans gained as the market transitions from focusing on demand, to focusing on supply.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says the grains markets started the day session higher with weekly exports strong except for old crop wheat. However, the market turned mixed with positioning ahead of a three day holiday and watching weather.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says several factors combined to cause the commodity wide buying on Wednesday.
Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities says grain markets continue to see profit taking after the recent relief rally pushed old crop corn, soybeans and wheat up into technical resistance on the charts.
Brian Grete, Pro Farmer, says grains see a healthy correction on profit taking after hitting resistance. Cattle continue to recover with the S&P but for how long?
In times of chaos, it’s best to go back to the basics of basis and price. Effective risk management has little room for mistakes, but that doesn’t mean it has to be perfect.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are seeing followthrough buying and strength Monday morning as the S&P 500 continues to stabilize and recover after the tariff delays.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the April WASDE confirmed the tighter balance sheets he had been expecting for several reports but that’s just the start of the bullish news.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says the way the markets shook off the escalating trade war with China was impressive but it will take several factors converging to keep the momentum going.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says the ag markets have handled the escalation of the trade war with China remarkably well this week.
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says corn and soybeans ended higher with lower ending stocks in the WASDE as corn fell below the 1.5 billion bu. mark.
Major changes weren’t anticipated for USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report, but there were still a few surprises — mostly for corn.