Market Analysis
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading says corn and soybeans saw selling late in the session on harvest pressure. However, soybeans had a higher weekly close pushed by President Trump’s renewed ideas of a China deal.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says it has been another volatile week in the cattle futures but they are still trading sideways and holding the uptrend lines. Grains are pausing after hitting chart resistance.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says soybeans extended gains off of Wednesday’s reversal on technical buying and short covering but with hopes of a China deal. The trade aid announced will also keep farmer selling at a minimum.
The government is shut down for a second day and so are no reports from USDA, including weekly export sales or flash sales. So what are the grain markets trading?
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says grains started lower Wednesday on the government shutdown but soybeans reversed higher after President Trump’s social media post on China.
Dan Basse, Ag Resource Company, says corn stocks were 207 million bu. above USDA’s projected ending stocks which was bearish for the market. Soybeans also made new lows for the move despite a slightly friendly report.
Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says soybeans saw hedge pressure with a dry open weekend for harvest across the Midwest but corn also hit chart resistance.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are higher early Monday. The cash feeder market has continued to move higher, so will it be able to lead the cattle futures back to new highs?
Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says he was surprised soybeans held the $10 level with all of the bearish demand news the market had to digest including China buying Argentina soybeans.
John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says grain markets rallied on Thursday as Argentina’s government announced it would be renewing its export tax.
Sam Hudson with Corn Belt Marketing says grains saw an early bounce on Thursday with news overnight that Argentina had reinstates it’s export tax on grains, which is at 26% for soybeans.
Mark Schultz, Northstar Commodity, says soybeans ended lower in tandem with lower soybean meal as China reportedly bought another 10 plus cargoes of lower priced Argentine soybeans after they dropped their export tax.
Kent Beadle with Paradigm Futures says the soybean market saw a bit of recovery on Tuesday and was trying to hold Wednesday morning with news that China has purchased more Argentina soybeans.
Brian Grete, senior analyst with CommStock Investments says the soybean market has priced in most of the negative export news out of Argentina.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX, says soybeans did technical damage on hangover from the disappointing talks with China and Argentina’s announced export tax holiday.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are sharply higher on Monday as news came late Sunday that New World Screwworm (NWS) had been detected 70 miles from the U.S. Mexican border. in an 8-month-old calf from a transported herd.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the market was disappointed soybeans were not part of the U.S. China trade discussion on Friday and as a result he’s altering his soybean marketing strategy.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, says the soybean market fell on disappointment talks between President Trump and Chinese President Xi on Friday did not include soybeans, that also weighed on corn and wheat.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the last time placements and markets were this low was in 2015, which may be signaling heifer retention is starting to take place.
Price action summary and outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures have seen a choppy week but are higher to start Friday after some better than expected cash trade.
Craig Turner with StoneX says corn and soybeans saw additional profit taking Thursday and pressure from harvest pressure and record soybean production estimates for Brazil.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, Inc. says corn and soybeans are seeing a pick up in farmer selling or hedge pressure as harvest expands across at least the Central and Eastern Midwest.
Alan Brugler with A&N Economics says the commodity markets saw some profit taking and risk off selling ahead of the FOMC announcement.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says corn tried to extend gains from Tuesday’s rally working in lower yield ideas.
However, it is failing at technical resistance around $4.30 on the December where farmer selling also picks up.
However, it is failing at technical resistance around $4.30 on the December where farmer selling also picks up.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says corn rallied on Tuesday as the market does not believe USDA’s 186.7 bu. per acre yield estimate especially with some disappointing early yield reports.
Jon Scheve with Scheve Grain says corn and soybeans were seeing a technical bounce Tuesday with corn getting some extra help from early yield reports which are showing lower production than a year ago due to disease pressure, especially Southern Rust.
Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says after 10-cent gains on Friday the corn market saw some profit taking but also report hangover. The September WASDE was bearish for the corn market and traders had the weekend to finally let that soak in.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are higher early Monday but after a second week of lower weekly closes, he’s not sure if the market can retest the highs.
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says corn rallied on Friday in reaction to USDA’s 2.1 bu. per acre yield cut to 186.7 bu. cut he thinks there are bigger cuts yet to come.