Market Analysis
Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk, says corn and wheat traded higher on technical or corrective buying as well as big flash export sales, noteably to Mexico.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says corn and soybeans are up after the news of 80 million bushels of corn sales and 6.4 million bushels of soybeans sales. Cattle opened higher before profit taking and hedge pressure set in.
Kent Beadle of Paradigm Futures says grains saw follow through selling pressure after a lower day Friday. The complex also saw spillover from the risk off day in outside markets including the higher dollar and lower crude oil.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are mostly higher early Monday on better cash news and trying to negate Friday’s reversal. Grains are seeing pressure from harvest and South American rain chances.
The October WASDE effectively solidified the supply side of the U.S. corn and soybean balance sheets for the 2024-25 marketing year, though Gulke was surprised USDA didn’t raise yields because harvest has never been so good on his farm.
Unlike some past years, the October report didn’t provide much for the bulls or the bears. USDA did raise corn yield 0.2 bu. per acre to a record 183.8 bu. and lowered soybean yield 0.1 bu. per acre to 53.1 bu.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures says after a non eventful WASDE, grains saw some profit taking heading into the weekend with row crops seeing harvest pressure.
We recap this week’s price action and provide outlook for the next 5, 30 and 90 day segments.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures need to take out the next layer of chart resistance to move higher. Grains continue to add war and weather premium and that shouldn’t change unless the WASDE is extremely bearish.
John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says the row crop markets are seeing continued pressure from three main fundamentals.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says wheat is higher adding war premium but soybeans and corn are seeing harvest pressure and trading South American weather.
If you have a long-term plan that includes goals for your business, and if making cash sales helps to advance your business toward reaching those goals, cash sales should be a celebration.
Brian Grete, Pro Farmer, says wheat was supported by light fund short covering as traders were adding in some geopolitical risk premium.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the cash cattle trade will likely be steady this week which may mean the futures could stall out. He thinks the party could be over in row crops.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says grains saw profit taking after running up into some chart resistance.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are well supported on higher cash. Grains seeing pressure as funds may be out of ammunition.
Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge, says funds have covered most of their record short position in grains and they are not likely to go long.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says funds continue to cover shorts in the grain markets but there are some fundamentals also helping to support the rally.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures says corn continues to move higher on fund buying and tighter corn stocks from USDA’s Quarterly Stocks Report. He thinks corn could eventually take out resistance on the charts and move higher.
Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing, says corn and soybeans have rallied into chart resistance and will need three main fundamental factors to combine to keep prices moving higher.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says soybeans continue to see Brazil weather concerns and technical buying. When soybeans put in an early harvest low they tend to rally around 80 cents and have cleared that mark already. However, if Brazil stays dry the market could continue to price that in.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures reversed with $2 higher cash in Southern feedlot areas. Grain markets ended lower as fund short covering was overrun by an increase in farmer selling.
Grains started out mostly lower Wednesday but Darin Newsom with Barchart says they continue to see buying on the dips as funds are covering shorts and taking profits.
Kevin Duling, KD Investors, says it wasn’t the best close for the grains as the markets ran up into some chart resistance and are starting to look a little tired.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says a combination of factors drove soybeans higher including South American weather and China economic news. Corn and wheat followed. Cattle futures also made new highs for the move pushed by cash.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle are hitting new highs for the move after a chart breakout and pushed by stronger cash last week. Grains are all strong early with soybeans making near term highs on the convergence of several fundamentals.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are seeing a correction heading into the Cattle on Feed Report. Corn and soybeans are seeing hedge pressure and selling tied to extended forecasts showing rain in Brazil.
Mike Minor, Professional Ag Marketing, says corn and soybeans saw pressure from harvest and better South American weather prospects. Cattle and hogs soared on the heels of the higher stock market.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says wheat is pulling down corn with a higher dollar and rains in the SW Plains, while soybeans hold gains on strong export demand. Cattle are rallying in sympathy with the stock market.
Darren Frye, Water Street Advisory, says the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points could be huge for agricultural markets.