Market Analysis
Corn and soybeans post higher weekly closes. Does this finally confirm a low? Bryan Doherty says corn “hasn’t turned all the way yet” and soybeans likely will experience pressure from Brazil’s harvest and prices.
Corn and wheat rallied on end of month profit taking by the speculative traders, while soybeans and cattle faltered. Arlan Suderman with StoneX has details.
Jon Scheve discusses the likelihood of a market rally, and what needs to happen for it to become a reality.
Grain markets are attempting to recover some lost ground in the early morning trade, will the strength last through today’s session?
USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum in Washington, D.C., this past week confirmed growing stocks in 2024/2025. Analysts say without a sudden supply disruption, the commodity price outlook remains grim.
Chip Flory warns that as more crush capacity comes online, the soybean market might realize it waited too long to bid for 2024 soybean acres.
What caused the price pressure again this week? Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and John Payne of hEDGEpoint Global join U.S. Farm Report to discuss what the market is watching.
We asked seven commodity market analysts to give commodity market outlooks for 2024 With their insights, the bearish market conditions will carry over, with a slightly more optimistic outlook for soybeans over corn.
Dan Basse: “Importantly, managed money is sitting on their largest net short CBOT grain position in four years.”
Naomi Blohm: “The U.S. soybean story remains quite friendly to start 2024 with historically small ending stocks and strong crush demand.”
Peter Meyer says, “Both the corn and soybean markets will need to take their lead from changes in both global and domestic demand given the production shortfall stories have become stale.”
Chip Nellinger says, “Producers should be prepared to be more aggressive than years past in protecting downside price risk.”
“Near term, the soybean market has a loftier perch with a tight balance sheet emerging from supply headwinds,” says Mike North.
“It’s difficult to find anything bullish to say about corn for 2024.” says Jon Scheve.
Angie Setzer says, “With their new trade agreement with Brazil, China is likely to import less corn from the U.S. in 2023.”
USDA’s final look at crop production for 2023 caught the commodity markets by surprise. The agency increased the final yield estimates for both corn and soybeans, and as a result, prices plummeted on Friday.
Jerry Gulke says a strong return to Marketing 101, last seen during the 1980s, may be on the horizon.
Despite the markets pricing in lower interest rates, Arlan Suderman expects inflation to rear its ugly head sometime in 2024.
Jon Scheve summarizes the latest weather conditions of the Mato Grosso region in Brazil and how it is impacting prices. He also discusses what to expect in this week’s USDA report.
Analysts say it’s go-time for the impacts of South American weather, but Argentina’s new president, and major policy changes, also spooked the markets this week. Chip Nellinger and Brian Grete explain why.
Despite weather concerns sprouting in Brazil, USDA didn’t make any major adjustments to the South American crop in Friday’s reports. Increased demand from China and Mexico prompted USDA to trim U.S. ending stocks.
Jon Scheve discusses how he maintained a guaranteed $5.37 floor price on his 2023 corn through November with his put option strategy.
After two months of a waning outlook on the ag economy, economists views took a turn in the November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, a survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the country.
According to a recent report from CoBank, an abundance of corn and soybeans has resulted in cheaper basis and bigger carries in futures markets.
Recent WASDE reports had assumed another record Brazilian soybean crop and Argentina returning to normal, but the El Niño weather pattern might have something to say about that.
On soybeans, Jerry Gulke says the 25 million bushel increase in carryout can easily be wiped out with the current weather issues potential cuts to South American production, plus increased export demand.
Jon Scheve discusses similarities of corn and bean prices in October between 2022 and 2023.
Soybean demand makes the market more receptive to a postharvest rally if production trends lower into January. Corn exports are behind last year’s pace, and importers are turning to Brazil’s corn.
Even though USDA slightly adjusted yields lower in the October report, the agency also cut demand, which one extension agribusiness specialist says indicates there may not be much motivation for prices to move much.
Jon Scheve discusses last week’s USDA report and how corn carryout and demand could be an issue. Plus, he explains his corn basis strategy for last year’s crop.