Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says many farmers believe that corn and soybean yields need to be cut but he will be watching the ending stocks for direction.
Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says the trade guesses are fairly conservative with not many changes expected. However, that is not the history of the January reports. So could there be a surprise?
Live and feeder cattle futures were lower early Friday but Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it didn’t take long for the markets to firm up supported by the cash market.
The January USDA reports have been historically a huge market mover and a great deal of the focus will be on final yields and production.
History shows that down years for the greenback often happen in pairs.
Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading says the soybean market faded after hitting chart resistance but also seemed disappointed with the lack of confirmed China export business. The grain complex also saw report positioning.
The grain markets were mixed early Thursday squaring ahead of the USDA reports. DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says that could keep the markets quiet the next few sessions.
The Trump administration said it would take control of as much as 50 million barrels.
Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk attributes the rally mostly to corrective buying after a $1.40 break from the highs in soybeans. Traders are also short in the wheat market, which just came off of contract lows in SRW futures.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, says the grain complex may be some rebalancing by hedge and index fund traders to start a new year and with grains under valued.
Jerry Gulke describes what factors are shaping the new paradigm in global ag trade and corn prices for 2026.
Ethanol accounted for 11.06% of the nation’s gasoline in October
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says soybeans sold off in a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact,” reaction to USDA confirming China export sales.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the recent strength in cattle has been a combination of fund buying and higher cash trade. He predicts that will continue into first quarter of 2026.
Growing concerns about a global glut that could drag prices still lower.
Chuck Shelby of Risk Management Commodities says soybeans, corn and wheat were oversold and saw some corrective buying but there was also some risk on buying across the ag complex.
Oil market remains a wild card after U.S. capture of Maduro.
Grain markets are all higher to start the week. Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says some of the strength is tied to short covering after lower weekly closes in corn, soybeans and wheat last week.
Is it easier to be skeptical of usage estimates and trade agreements, or is it the more popular thing to do? Chip Flory admits the clock is ticking on his optimism, especially without market development outside of China.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures saw a chart breakout, pushed by fundamental factors. Meanwhile, the soybean market saw technical selling and pressure from mostly favorable weather in South America.
Soybeans scored new lows for the move on the last trading day of 2025. Randy Martinson says the market saw technical selling with end of quarter and end of year positioning and favorable weather in Brazil.
Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says there is a general lack of news for the grain markets so some of the pressure is coming from end of the quarter and end of the year positioning by traders.
Will 2026 be a repeat of 2016? Chris Barron, Ag View Solutions, shares four strategies to help farmers capture some profit in this down cycle.
Brazil is a beef-exporting juggernaut, but the country’s ability to tame global prices may soon be tested.
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says some algorithm trades moved the grain market with year end position squaring but there was also spillover from macro markets like gold and silver.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the live and feeder cattle futures board has remained sideways since around Dec. 11. However, there is one thing that could break that trend.
Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says the grains saw a Santa Claus rally on technical buying as under light volume its easier to move a market. Hogs reacted to the bearish Hogs and Pigs Report.
Dan Basse with Ag Resource Company says the next focus for the soybean market in 2026 will be South American weather and what does China do on long term soybean purchases.
Grains are quiet Tuesday morning. Volume is light as we are into holiday trading already says DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing.
Arlan Suderman with StoneX, Inc. says some of Monday’s buying was tied to money flow and end of the year profit taking he says. The higher energy market was also supportive of the grains.